Pakistan can build neutron bomb

Updated 1:40 PM ET August 18, 1999 By RAJA ZULFIKAR
http://webcrawler-news.excite.com/news/u/990818/13/international-neutronbomb

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Aug. 18 (UPI) A senior Pakistan nuclear scientist says the country has "sufficient material and expertise" to build a neutron bomb to safeguard the national security and Pakistan's territorial integrity.

"By the grace of God, we have well-trained, specialized and capable nuclear scientists who can design nuclear weapons of any type or size including a neutron bomb," says N. M. Butt, a noted nuclear scientist.

Butt's disclosures are ostensibly a response to a similar statement from an Indian nuclear scientist who has said New Delhi can make a neutron bomb. Butt has headed an institute in Pakistan, doing research on these subjects. On the first anniversary of nuclear detonations by Pakistan on May 28 this year, the chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Ashfaq Ahmed, has already made a reference to the expertise and the availability of highly skilled staff in scientific fields.

The two arch rivals of South Asia have conducted nuclear tests one after another, drawing international rebuke as well as sanctions. Pakistan blames New Delhi for setting into motion an armed race by first detonating nuclear devices. It says India has aggressive designs against Pakistan.

Butt who has also been in charge of a key department in the PAEC says Pakistan has sufficient material, with which bombs and particularly the neutron bomb can be built. But he has not given specific details. He describes a neutron bomb as "a battle-field weapon, which is essentially a low yield thermonuclear device." It can be used to kill human beings, he said in a Pakistan television program.

The Pakistani scientist says such a nuclear weapon causes little destruction to buildings, bridges, civil and military hardware and other installations.

"It just kills human beings so the infrastructure can still be of use after the small blasts," Butt says.

Meanwhile, Akram Zaki, member of the Upper House of Pakistani Parliament says Indian announcement to build a neutron bomb reflects its expansionist designs. "This poses yet another serious threat to South Asia," the senator says.

He urges human rights organizations to take a notice of the Indian announcement, as a neutron bomb is capable of killing only human beings since it causes no damage to infrastructure.

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Pakistani: We Can Make Neutron Bomb

Wednesday, August 18, 1999; 2:33 p.m. EDT
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990818/V000913-081899-idx.html

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- Pakistan has enough expertise and the necessary material to make a neutron bomb, the state-run news agency reported Wednesday.

The Associated Press of Pakistan quoted scientist N.M. Butt as saying the country had the ability to ``build a nuclear weapon of any type or size, including neutron bomb.''

Butt is director-general of Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology, a key institution doing nuclear research.

The Pakistani scientist's remarks came the day after an Indian nuclear scientist claimed India can make a neutron bomb.

Neutron bombs produce a smaller blast than conventional nuclear weapons but have more intense radiation, enabling them to limit structural damage while killing large numbers of people.

Pakistan and its neighbor India carried out tit-for-tat nuclear tests in May 1998, generating international fears of a nuclear confrontation.

India says it needs a minimum nuclear deterrent to arm itself against possible attacks by its neighbors, Pakistan to the west and China to the north.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947.

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India Outlines 'Minimum Deterrence' Nuclear Plan

Updated 2:46 AM ET August 18, 1999
http://webcrawler-news.excite.com/news/r/990818/02/international-arms-india

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India Tuesday said it would pursue a doctrine of credible minimum nuclear deterrence based on aircraft, ships and mobile land-based missiles and a "flexible and responsive" command and control structure.

The National Security Advisory Board said the doctrine was aimed at convincing a potential aggressor that "any nuclear attack on India and its forces shall result in punitive retaliation with nuclear weapons to inflict damage unacceptable to the aggressor."

"Nuclear weapons shall be tightly controlled and released for use at the highest political level. The authority to release nuclear weapons for use resides in the person of the Prime Minister of India, or the designated successor(s)," a document outlining the doctrine said.

Brajesh Mishra, national security adviser to Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, told reporters the doctrine was a draft and would have to be approved by the new government that will take power after elections in September and October. "This is a draft...It will have to wait for a new government," Mishra said, adding the draft was being made public to encourage a debate.

The draft doctrine reiterated India's commitment to no-first-use of nuclear weapons and added: "Global, verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament is a national security objective. India shall continue its efforts to achieve the goal of a nuclear weapons-free world at an early date."

India and Pakistan both staged nuclear tests in May 1998 and both countries have declared they possess nuclear weapons. Earlier this summer the neighbors came close to their fourth war since independence, triggered by bitter fighting in the disputed region of Kashmir.

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India Drafts Doctrine on Nuclear Arms
Policy Proposal Seen Directed at Pakistan

By Pamela Constable Washington Post Foreign Service Wednesday, August 18, 1999; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/18/081l-081899-idx.html

NEW DELHI, Aug. 17Indian officials made public today a proposed national nuclear arms doctrine under which only the elected prime minister could authorize a nuclear strike and which would allow India to use such weapons only if attacked by another nuclear power.

The six-page proposal by the National Security Advisory Board, released 15 months after India and regional rival Pakistan staged successive nuclear weapons tests, also recommended that India develop a "triad" strategic defense system in which nuclear weapons could be delivered by land-based missiles, planes and submarines.

The muscular language and unexpected timing of the announcement seemed designed in part to warn Pakistan that a nuclear strike at India would trigger retaliation in kind. While Indian officials emphasized that the statement was not aimed at any specific country, it came after nearly three months of almost constant military clashes between India and Pakistan. Unlike New Delhi, the Islamabad government has not ruled out the first use of nuclear weapons.

The proposal, which has not yet been approved by the 27-member advisory board and would not take effect until a new government is formed after next month's elections, was the Indian government's first formal declaration on the subject of nuclear weapons policy. Previously, officials here had said only that India would forswear first use of nuclear weapons and that its overriding nuclear policy would be to provide a "minimum credible deterrent" to nuclear war, but they had not spelled out what that meant.

"The fundamental purpose of Indian nuclear weapons is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons by a state or entity against India and its forces," the document said. "Any adversary must know that India can and will retaliate with sufficient nuclear weapons to inflict destruction and punishment . . . if nuclear weapons are used against India and its forces."

The United States, which has been engaged in high-level talks with both India and Pakistan in hopes of preventing a nuclear arms race in South Asia, reacted coolly to today's announcement. State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said the United States was not consulted on the document and continues to believe that "possession of nuclear weapons in this form or similar forms doesn't enhance" the security of India and Pakistan.

"We think it would be unwise to move in the direction of developing a nuclear deterrent and encouraging thereby the other country to develop a nuclear deterrent and thereby creating an action-reaction cycle that will increase the risks to both countries," Rubin said in Washington.

Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Indian announcement was part of a "slow, steady movement toward eventual deployment of nuclear weapons in South Asia. That is what is dangerous and what the United States has tried unsuccessfully to stop."

Anti-nuclear activists here described the proposal as containing several new and alarming elements that could provoke a strong reaction from both Pakistan and China, India's other nuclear-armed neighbor. India cited China as its principal concern when it staged its nuclear tests in May 1998, while Pakistan is a perennial rival with which India has fought three wars in 52 years.

The proposal asserts that India would respond to a nuclear attack "with punitive retaliation should deterrence fail." This, said Praful Bidwai, head of India's leading anti-nuclear organization, adds a disturbing new element to the country's stance on nuclear weapons. "Last year, our government presented its doctrine in the garb of restraint and responsibility; now they are disclosing the nasty side of no first use," Bidwai said. "The language is menacing. I think it will be seen by people in Pakistan, especially the military hawks, as a provocation, and that's how nuclear races are ignited."

But Brajesh Mishra, the government's national security adviser, insisted that India intends to develop a cautious, carefully controlled nuclear policy. Mishra and another member of the National Security Advisory Board, defense expert K. Subhramanyam, made the document public at a news conference.

"The cardinal principle is that of civilian control," Mishra said. India's systematic, carefully orchestrated defeat of Pakistani-based guerrillas during a prolonged border clash in Kashmir last month, he said, "showed that we behaved with restraint and responsibility" in a conventional conflict. "That will also guide our actions in the use of nuclear weapons."

The draft doctrine also proposes that India create a "robust" command and control system in which only the prime minister, or someone designated by him, can authorize the use of nuclear weapons. It did not address the role of the military in the handling and deployment of nuclear warheads, saying only that the "actual size, components, deployment and employment of nuclear forces will be decided" based on strategic, technological and security considerations.

Exactly how India or Pakistan might stage a nuclear strike is still largely a matter of speculation. It is possible that both countries already are capable of dropping a nuclear bomb from an airplane; both countries also have tested missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Michael Krepon, president of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington-based research organization, said the document failed to say whether India would keep its missiles launch-ready and whether such missiles will be fitted with warheads. "Based on this document, it will be hard for other countries to believe in India's assurance of no first use," Krepon said. "To other countries it will look like readiness to use."

But the Carnegie Endowment's Cirincione said nevertheless that the draft document appears to be an attempt to reassure the world that India has a responsible, thought out nuclear arms policy and a clear command structure. "This says the weapons are not something that regional commanders will have unrestricted access to, which is a concern in a country with a history of poor communications between troops in the field and headquarters," Cirincione said.

It was not clear what impact the proposed policy, if adopted, would have on India's stance on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the United States has been pressing it to sign for months. Mishra said that would be decided by the next government and was not discussed by the panel.

Staff writer Douglas Farah in Washington contributed to this report.

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Asian Hot Spots Command Attention

By Tom Raum Associated Press Writer Wednesday, August 18, 1999; 1:13 a.m. EDT
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990818/V000472-081899-idx.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- While conflicts have subsided elsewhere, it's been a hot, dangerous summer for Asia -- with confrontations brewing in the Taiwan Strait, on the Korean peninsula and on the Indian subcontinent.

And the Clinton administration is mindful that any one of these trouble spots might suddenly burst into a full-fledged crisis that could involve the United States.

The conflicts:

--North Korea seems on the verge of launching another ballistic missile, which could further destabilize the region and increase weapons proliferation.

--China could move against Taiwanese territory, perhaps one of the offshore islands claimed by Taiwan, in response to what it sees as provocative sovereignty claims from Taipei.

--An escalation of fighting between India and Pakistan could bring them to the brink of a nuclear war. Both militaries have gone on high alert recently and India announced Tuesday a new nuclear deterrent plan.

Other world conflicts have quieted -- for now.

Peacekeeping operations are progressing in Kosovo, U.S.-British air skirmishes with Iraq have settled in at relative low levels, and even the bloody 15-month war between Ethiopia and Eritrea appears to be winding down.

Likewise, foreign policy has hardly been a blip on the radar screens of the 2000 U.S. presidential and congressional campaigns, although Republicans still hope to turn alleged Chinese nuclear espionage into a campaign issue.

Probably the most imminent tension-raiser is North Korea, which may soon test its Taepodong 2 missile. With a believed range of 3,750 miles, it could theoretically reach Hawaii or Alaska.

North Korea last August launched a ballistic missile over Japan that landed in the Pacific. The United States fears the test of an even longer-range missile would further destabilize the peninsula and increase pressure in South Korea and Japan for missile-defense programs.

U.S. officials have offered North Korea economic incentives in exchange for an agreement to end missile development and other concessions.

But intelligence reports suggest North Korea may be only days from launching a test. ``We don't know whether one's going to occur or not at this stage,'' Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon said Tuesday.

Bill Taylor, director of political-military studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, sees such a missile test as ``pretty imminent.''

The long-isolated North Korea regime has little to lose, from its vantage point, from testing and improving its missile capability, Taylor suggested. ``In a war between the North and the South, would North Korea resort to using its missiles? The answer is yes.''

And while North Korea is destined to lose such a war, he said, ``it could do devastating damage to South Korea'' in the process. About 37,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea.

As to China, any military offensive toward Taiwan could directly entangle the United States. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act includes a U.S. commitment to come to the island's defense in case of an attack from the mainland.

China views Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's advocacy of ``state to state'' relations as a move toward Taiwanese independence -- and has made it clear it would not rule out force to keep Taiwan in line.

Such statements have already unleashed a torrent of pro-Taiwan sentiment in Congress. ``We must be very clear with Beijing. The United States will do what it must to defend freedom and stability in Asia,'' said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in remarks reflecting widely held views.

John Steinbruner, a foreign policy analyst with the Brookings Institution, doesn't expect a military move by China, ``but I wouldn't rule it out. Every time that (China-Taiwan) situation appears to get out of hand, China does something largely symbolic to remind us they're not kidding.''

It seems unlikely China would try anything openly provocative before President Clinton's September meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Jiang Zemin, however.

Meanwhile, India's announcement that it was creating a nuclear deterrence program drew immediate criticism from the Clinton administration, which hopes to persuade both India and Pakistan to abandon their nuclear programs.

``Clearly, they're moving in the wrong direction,'' said State Department spokesman James P. Rubin.

India's statement came at a time of increased military skirmishes and a day after an Indian scientist disclosed that country can make a neutron bomb, which kills people but leaves buildings standing.

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China, Taiwan Flaunt Weaponry Amid Crisis

Updated 6:54 AM ET August 17, 1999, By Paul Eckert
http://webcrawler-news.excite.com/news/r/990817/06/international-taiwan-china

BEIJING (Reuters) - Rivals China and Taiwan put weaponry behind their war of words Tuesday, with Beijing following an overnight army parade with military bluster and Taipei staging live-fire drills to showcase its tank defenses.

Beijing rolled out its military hardware -- tanks, missiles and artillery -- in a rehearsal Monday night for a giant parade to mark communist China's 50th anniversary on October 1.

The rumble of People's Liberation Army (PLA) tanks through the heart of Beijing had not been heard since the Tiananmen Square crackdown a decade ago.

Although the first National Day parade since 1984 has been planned for years, the timing has given China a chance to rattle its sabers in the face of a series of perceived threats, most seriously from Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui.

Lee last month stopped just short of declaring independence for Taiwan by saying the island will now deal with China only on a "special state-to-state basis."

Beijing, which has regarded Taiwan as a breakaway province since 1949 when the Nationalists lost a civil war to the Communists and fled into exile, has threatened to invade if it declares independence.

Tuesday, The PLA newspaper renewed the threat to use force to thwart Lee's "evil splittist plot."

Not to be outdone, Taiwan's army staged live-fire drills to showcase the capabilities of 50 refurbished tanks before dozens of officials and reporters at Chi-chi military base, in the central part of the island.

The Taiwan tanks, American M41s made in 1950, were completely overhauled at a cost of $43 million with a more powerful engine, greater maneuverability and night vision.

"The small and refined M41D tanks, which are highly mobile, can play a key role in future battlegrounds," the defense ministry said in a statement.

Taiwan's defense ministry also said Tuesday that China's navy conducted missile tests and live-fire drills in the South China Sea from August 10 to 16.

The statement followed regular reports from Beijing-owned Hong Kong newspapers of military drills and troop preparations.

Taiwan defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding, while dismissing Beijing's rhetoric as "psychological and propaganda warfare," acknowledged Chinese troops were conducting training exercises and that a naval fleet was in waters off southern China for guided missile and artillery exercises.

"All these activities have no impact on our national security," Kung told reporters at the tank exercises.

For three hours Monday night, a long procession of smoke-belching tanks, armoured personnel carriers, amphibious vehicles and trucks carrying PLA troops crept along Beijing's Changan Avenue -- the Avenue of Eternal Peace.

Treaded vehicles driving four abreast bore an array of missiles, including blue-tipped surface-to-air rockets.

State media made no mention of the rehearsal but kept up the tirade against Lee.

The Liberation Army Daily said frontline troops facing Taiwan's heavily fortified Quemoy island vowed "concrete actions to smash the wicked separatist plot of Lee Teng-hui."

The People's Daily said Chinese Marines were holding exercises in the South China Sea and "would not sit by and watch the split of any inch of the motherland's territory."

The outrage ahead of the 50th anniversary of the founding of Communist China comes as Beijing feels haunted by a sense of international impotence and humiliation and threatened by social disorder at home.

Beijing is still smarting from the U.S. bombing of its Belgrade embassy in May, which almost all Chinese believe was deliberate. It also feels besieged by reinforced military links between the United States and Japan.

Internally, Chinese leaders are lashing out at what they perceive as a threat to their power by the spiritual movement Falun Gong, which claims 100 million adherents.

"They are saying 'nobody kicks sand in China's face'," said one Western diplomat, commenting on the military parade.

Adding to China's sorrows, Taiwan's challenge has only exposed its relative military weakness in the modern world. Military analysts doubt Beijing has the capability to invade Taiwan, and say it would pay a horrific price for trying.

For all its fierce rhetoric, the 2.5 million-strong PLA -- the world's biggest military -- is a backward fighting force.

"That's psychological warfare," an Asian diplomat said, referring to threats in the media. "Once military action is started, there's uncertainty where it would lead."

Yet the National Day parade is an opportunity for the leadership to project an image of strength and resolve -- a showing that played well with curious onlookers Monday.

"It is important that our military is strong because a country that is not powerful can be bullied," said Lu Jiang, standing behind a police cordon.

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China Shows Off Its Military Might
Tanks Roll in Beijing, Marines Drill at Sea

By Michael Laris Washington Post Foreign Service Tuesday, August 17, 1999; Page A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/17/120l-081799-idx.html

BEIJING, Aug. 16In a dual demonstration of China's military might, hundreds of tanks and armored personnel carriers rumbled through downtown Beijing practicing parade formations tonight, and the government announced that its marines have been holding landing drills in the South China Sea as a warning to Taiwan.

The simultaneous military exercises underscore the determination of China's Communist leaders to showcase their power in the face of perceived challenges at home and abroad ahead of the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic on Oct. 1.

Thousands of spectators lined the Avenue of Eternal Peace to catch their first glimpse of tanks rolling through the Chinese capital since the military crushed pro-democracy protests in 1989, killing hundreds. Parents brought their children to see the army's show of force, a trial run for the massive military parade that will be the centerpiece of the anniversary celebration just six weeks away.

"This shows the Chinese people's aspirations," said Li Bin, 46, a former soldier, as artillery units rolled by. "We're strong now. For our foes, it's a reminder not to look down on China."

The practice parade came as tensions remained high across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui has been vilified in the state-run media here as "the enemy of all Chinese people" for asserting on July 9 that ties between Taiwan and China should be considered "special state-to-state relations."

Beijing considered Lee's statements to be a move toward a formal declaration of independence, which it has vowed would be met with an invasion. The United States is committed to the defense of Taiwan by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

The official New China News Agency reported that Chinese soldiers nationwide have been denouncing Lee, and have declared that "no form of separation will be allowed."

It gave no indication of how many soldiers were taking part in the exercises in the South China Sea, but said the troops are "demonstrating their determination to defend the country's territorial integrity, as well as displaying their military strength."

The announcement marked the first time during the latest crisis with Taiwan that the government has officially linked a military exercise to its displeasure with Lee. A number of other military announcements in recent weeks have been interpreted as veiled threats against Taiwan, including Beijing's declaration that it has neutron bomb technology.

In Beijing, the tank formations began pouring in at 7 p.m., blocking many key transportation arteries and delaying many of the city's commuters. Heavier tanks were directed onto bike paths to avoid putting too much weight on overpasses.

"This is so irritating," snarled one woman as she tried in vain to pedal through the gridlocked bike lane along Beijing's main avenue. "I can't get home."

The grinding sound of tank treads rolling on asphalt reverberated through the streets into the early morning hours. Some observers said the spectacle served to send a signal both internationally and domestically.

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Taiwan, Threatened By China, Grounds F-16s

Updated 5:57 AM ET August 18, 1999 By Dan Martin
http://webcrawler-news.excite.com/news/r/990818/05/international-arms-taiwan

TAIPEI (Reuters) - A crash forced Taiwan to ground its most advanced fighters Wednesday just as it was trying to play up its military readiness in the face of Chinese saber-rattling.

The crash of the U.S.-made F-16 in southern Taiwan occurred only shortly after the air force had ended an earlier grounding prompted by three other F-16 crashes since March 1998.

The air force said the crash would not affect Taiwan's defenses, because the island had other aircraft available.

"Even with the temporary suspension of F-16 training, the current fleet can still maintain a normal level of readiness with the rest of our fleet," an air force official told the state-funded Central News Agency.

But the accident is an embarrassment to the government, which has sought recently to raise public confidence in Taiwan's armed forces amid Chinese threats to punish what Beijing views as independence moves by the Nationalist-ruled island.

"I think these incidents show that we are probably in our most vulnerable stage of air defense," said Andrew Yang, an expert on Taiwan-China military affairs.

"This will delay making these aircraft operational," he said.

The air force said it would suspend training in the F-16s pending an investigation into the crash at the Chiayi city airport.

The three previous F-16 crashes killed five crew members.

Wednesday's crash came as the pilot tried to land following a training flight, the air force said. The pilot ejected to safety.

The crash coincided with a new warning Wednesday from mainland China that Taiwan's massive expenditures on high-tech weaponry would be of little use if their dispute over Taiwan's political status escalated to armed conflict.

"Military strength cannot save Lee Teng-hui," said a front-page commentary in the Liberation Army Daily, referring to Taiwan's president.

Lee touched off a new bout of tension between the longtime rivals last month by demanding that China treat Taiwan with the respect due a separate state -- a move seen as an independence bid by China, which claims Taiwan as its own.

China responded by issuing numerous reports it was readying its military and other threatening gestures. It held a huge parade of tanks, missiles and artillery through Beijing's streets Monday in a rehearsal of October 1 national day celebrations.

Taiwan has flexed its own muscles recently with an air show and highly publicized maneuvers by refurbished tanks, apparently aimed at showing China the island was no pushover.

Taiwan ordered 150 of the Lockheed Martin F-16s, along with 60 French-made Dassault Mirage 2000-5s, in the early 1990s to replace its aging fleet of F-5 fighters.

The jet purchases also were intended to restore confidence in the air force following crashes of other aircraft and allegations of design flaws in Taiwan's home-grown Indigenous Defense Fighter, which suffered several embarrassing mishaps including a crash that killed one pilot.

The F-16 and Mirage purchases infuriated China, which has few planes of such sophistication although it has begun taking delivery of large and powerful Russian-made Sukhoi Su-27 fighters.

Investigations into the causes of the previous F-16 crashes have been inconclusive but the military has said they may have been due to malfunctions in flight guidance systems.

The air force said Wednesday it would extend F-16 pilot training to eight months from the current six months.

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Taiwan Leader Backs Missile Defense

By The Associated Press, August 18, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Taiwan-Missiles.html

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- In a move likely to anger Beijing, Taiwan's president pushed Wednesday for the island to adopt a defense network capable of shooting down the missiles that rank among China's best weapons.

An anti-missile defense system ``not only responds to current needs, but even more, fulfills the nation's long-term development interests,'' President Lee Teng-hui was quoted as telling the ruling Nationalist Party's top decision-making body.

Lee's comment, relayed to reporters by Nationalist spokesman Huang Hwei-chen, was among his strongest public endorsements of an anti-missile system. It came amid another round of chest beating in Beijing's official press over what China might do if Lee sticks to his recent statement supporting Taiwan's statehood.

China was enraged by Lee's July 9 statement that the sides should deal with each other on a ``state-to-state'' basis. That abandoned earlier, more ambiguous language and was viewed by Beijing as a step by Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province, toward a declaration of independence.

In a blistering editorial, the Chinese military's Liberation Army Daily on Wednesday said China's army was ready to crush any Taiwanese attempt to formalize the political separation between the sides, which split amid civil war in 1949.

The Chinese army has ``the determination, the confidence and the strength to prepare at any time to crush any plot to split the motherland,'' it said.

Despite widespread support for Lee in Taiwan, the editorial claimed Taiwanese forces were opposed to his stance and would not fight to defend it.

China's renewed threat to attack Taiwan follows earlier reports that it is boosting deployment of M-9 and M-11 ballistic missiles targeting the island. Although China's 2.7 million-member military operates with largely obsolete weapons and tactics, its ballistic missiles are considered a potent psychological and tactical weapon against Taiwan.

Threatening war games and missile tests near Taiwan in 1995-96 spooked many Taiwanese and sent the island's financial markets into a tailspin.

Lee's comments were prompted by a confidential report to the Nationalist Party meeting by Defense Minister Tang Fei, who recommended that a system to intercept missiles at low-altitude form the foundation of a defense network.

Technology now being developed to stop missiles at a greater range could be integrated later, Huang quoted Tang as saying.

Details of the system described by Tang were not released.

In a lecture last month, Tang said a system was being mulled that would detect incoming missiles with satellites and use Patriot missiles and the seaborne Aegis missile defense system to shoot them down.

That system would cover about 70 percent of Taiwan's territory and cost about $928 million, Tang said.

Taiwan, which possesses Patriots and wants to buy Aegis destroyers from the United States, spends $7.84 billion, or about 20 percent of the national budget, on its military.

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CNN - N. Korea willing to negotiate missile program

12:46 EST Turner Broadcasting - Atlanta GA - August 18, 1999
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9908/18/korea.missile/

PYONGYANG, North Korea (CNN) - North Korea said Wednesday it is willing to negotiate its reported plan to test-launch a long-range ballistic missile.

North Korea alarmed Northeast Asia a year ago by launching what the United States said was a long-range ballistic missile over northern Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.

The North now has a new missile that military analysts believe could reach Alaska or Hawaii. Japan, South Korea and the United States have said North Korea would face economic and diplomatic penalties if it test-launches the missile. Hard hit by food shortages, Pyongyang gets aid from all three countries.

Last week, Kim Yong Sun, secretary of the North Korean Workers Party and considered the right-hand man to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, told CNN's Mike Chinoy he was optimistic that tensions over North Korea's missile program could be eased through talks.

"If things are discussed in a reasonable manner," Kim said in an exclusive CNN interview, "they will turn out well. I am optimistic about it. If a visitor brings us cake, we will also give cake. But if they bring a sword, we will respond with a sword."

Chinoy reported there were signs North Korea was interested in using its missile program as leverage to extract diplomatic and economic concessions from the United States.

North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear weapons programs five years ago in return for American economic help and promises of a thaw in relations.

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Indonesia's Other War
As East Timor Vote Looms, Aceh Also Erupts

By Keith B. Richburg Washington Post Foreign Service Monday, August 16, 1999; Page A09
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/16/104l-081699-idx.html

BANDA ACEH, IndonesiaAs residents of Indonesia's troubled East Timor region prepare for their high-profile vote on independence this month, an equally bloody but less publicized war of secession is underway in a province at the opposite end of the archipelago.

Aceh is caught in a spiral of insurgency and repression that has claimed more than 220 lives since May and may threaten the integrity of Indonesia even more than the East Timor fighting. At least 40 Indonesian soldiers and dozens of rebels of the Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh) Movement have been killed in attacks and counterattacks. But civilians appear to be the principal victims of the violence.

Hundreds of houses, schools and government buildings have been burned. Entire villages have been deserted, and others are populated only by women--widows and mothers whose husbands and sons have been killed in periodic military sweeps.

At least 100,000 people have been displaced by the conflict, according to government estimates; human rights groups in the area estimate twice that number. They live huddled by the thousands around mosques and schools along the main coastal road between Banda Aceh and Lhokseumawe.

"There are more cases of refugees caught in the middle," said a spokeswoman for a local relief agency in Banda Aceh who asked not to be identified. "They've got the military on one side and Free Aceh on the other."

The rebellion stems from the Acehnese sense that their region is distinct from the rest of Indonesia. Before independence, Aceh (pronounced AH-chay)--a sultanate and trading post with its own international trade agreements--led the battle against Dutch colonial rule. After Indonesia achieved independence in 1949, the country's first president, Sukarno, promised to make Aceh a special autonomous region but never followed through. And for a decade, from 1988 until last year, Aceh was declared a special military operations area. Human rights groups say thousands were killed as the army tried to suppress separatism.

With the resignation of Indonesia's second president, Suharto, in May 1998 after more than three decades of autocratic rule, pent-up frustrations were unleashed and separatist sentiment increased across the archipelago. In Aceh, separatist rebels were further emboldened when Suharto's successor, B.J. Habibie, decided to allow an independence referendum for East Timor. The armed forces have moved thousands of troops into Aceh in an attempt to suppress separatism in the weeks before East Timor's scheduled Aug. 30 vote.

The Acehnese separatist movement appears to pose a greater threat to the unity of Indonesia--a country of 210 million people and more than 300 ethnic groups, scattered across more than 13,500 islands--than does the one in East Timor.

While Indonesia was a Dutch colony, East Timor was under Portuguese control and did not become a part of Indonesia until it was invaded in 1975 and annexed one year later. In a country where the predominant religion is Islam, the overwhelming majority of Timorese are Roman Catholic. Except for its coffee plantations and some marble, East Timor is poor in resources, and its population of 800,000 is negligible in a country of this size. East Timor could separate and barely cause a ripple.

Aceh, however, is rich in natural gas deposits and is strategically placed on the northern tip of Sumatra, on the Strait of Malacca shipping lane. Although the Acehnese consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country, Indonesians consider the province an integral part of their nation. And Aceh is staunchly Islamic.

Habibie, in an interview this month, summed up the difference: "East Timor is just like Puerto Rico. Aceh is just like, for the United States, Georgia. You cannot separate Georgia."

Abuses by the military seem to be the main reason that popular sentiment for independence has grown rapidly in recent months. The stories are rife, and horrific. Forty-one civilians were killed in the north of the province May 3, after the military said they had surrounded troops who were searching for a kidnapped soldier. Troops killed another nine suspected rebels during a shootout on Aug. 5. And 20 more people were killed in separate incidents over the weekend.

In the most recent large-scale incident, at least 56 people were killed in the village of Beutong on July 23. Col. Syarifudin Tippe, the local military commander whose troops were involved in the violence, says his men killed 31 rebels who attacked them with machetes and homemade weapons. The 25 other dead, he said, were "bodies brought in to implicate the military." Human rights groups say all the victims were villagers.

Syarifudin said economic hardship, not military abuse, is fueling support for the separatists. "The recruits seem to be from the lower classes, from the unemployed," he said. One way to defuse the tension, he said, is "to strengthen local autonomy and regional autonomy."

Whatever the causes may be, solutions are not apparent. There are no peace talks, no cease-fire negotiations, no dialogue, no mediators--barely even an acknowledgment that a full-scale guerrilla war is underway.

"There will be no peace with the Indonesian government," Abdullah Syafii, the rebels' chief commander in the Pidie district, told reporters in a clandestine interview. "There will be no negotiations with the Indonesian government. . . . We will not take any form of autonomy from the Indonesian-Javanese government. We will not make peace with them. We will not make any deals with them."

Col. Syafnil Armen, the Indonesian military commander in Lhokseumawe, said: "I haven't seen any Aceh Merdeka people. I see looting and burning and killing by groups of people I don't really have a name for." Syafii "is harassing and terrorizing people, and it is our job to guarantee safety," Armen said. "He must be looked for and caught."

He summed up his military strategy succinctly: "It's kill or be killed."

RESTIVE ARCHIPELAGO:

ACEH

Before Indonesian independence, Aceh was a sultanate, and led the battle against Dutch colonialists. It was promised special autonomous status at independence, but Indonesia never followed through.

EAST TIMOR

The island's population is mostly Roman Catholic due to its Portuguese colonial history. Indonesia invaded after the island declared independence in 1975. Resistance remains strong. An independence referendum is to be held this month.