NucNews-World 8/23/99

NucNews-World 8/23/99

Russia; Denmark-Inuit Radiation Victims;
Indian Arsenal; Switzerland Army Scandal;
Taiwan/China (2); Koreas (5)

US-1 Nuc Waste | US-2 Security | Global Hotspots

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Progress Seen With Russia Scientists

By Nick Wadhams Associated Press Writer Friday, August 20, 1999; 6:17 p.m. EDT
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990820/V000896-082099-idx.html

MOSCOW (AP) -- A U.S. congressional delegation working to keep underpaid Russian defense scientists from selling their knowledge to rogue nations made progress in talks this week, officials said Friday.

Ellen Tauscher, a California Democrat, and other delegation members spoke in Moscow after traveling to the closed city of Snezhinsk in Russia's Ural Mountains. Members of the delegation said defense scientists in Snezhinsk are warming to the idea of using their expertise in the private sector instead of selling their knowledge of weaponry to the highest bidder.

The delegation was in Russia on behalf of a U.S. government project called the Nuclear Cities Program. It aims to bring private sector high-tech jobs to Russia's scientific centers so the scientists there aren't lured abroad.

The program will ``not only help us with national security but is clearly moving Russians toward the new economy, toward stability, toward self sustaining, long-term gainful employment,'' Tauscher said.

According to U.S. intelligence estimates, at least 3,000 underpaid scientists with expertise in weapons of mass destruction have left the country in the last eight years. The problem, industry experts say, is wages.

Scientists and other workers at Russia's defense centers saw their high wages and benefits disappear with the Soviet collapse. They now earn an estimated $150 a month, the delegation said.

The United States fears that countries like Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea will try to hire on those scientists to help build weapons of mass destruction.

``At some point in time your hope just can't last forever without some encouragement,'' said delegation member Ron Cochran, executive officer at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in northern California. ``What we need to avoid is any situation which causes them to lose hope.''

Snezhinsk in particular was a large concern. It has the site of several strikes by scientists demanding wage payments, and the Commerce Department has warned that institutes there may have been involved in nuclear proliferation activities.

But members of the delegation said Friday they were encouraged by what appeared to be a shift in the scientists' thinking.

Previously, ``it was just beneath the dignity of the scientists to think that they would stoop so low as to produce a product that didn't make a big light in the sky and lots of energy,'' said Janet Hauber, with Lawrence Livermore. ``This time when we traveled there we were almost overwhelmed with commercial-style proposals.''

Bringing the scientists around, though, is only half the battle for the Nuclear Cities Program. It also is trying to match the scientists with high-tech U.S. companies that could use their expertise.

The goal: to create a high-tech commercial sector in Russia similar to America's Silicon Valley.

Though the project just started last year and no deals have been signed, computer chip maker Intel and software-maker Oracle are interested. Officials believe medical technology and telecommunication firms also may invest.

This week's trip had political implications as well. It was part of a booster effort for the Nuclear Cities Program before what is expected to be a tough appropriations vote in Congress next month.

Tauscher admitted that it has been difficult to get the program moving. Obstacles, she said, include Russia's struggling economy and a daunting bureaucratic system that makes closed cities like Snezhinsk hard to visit.

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Denmark Told to Compensate Inuits

Friday, August 20, 1999; 9:59 a.m. EDT
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990820/V000495-082099-idx.html

... In 1995, the government paid $15.5 million to 1,700 Danes and Greenlanders who were subjected to radiation in 1968 when they cleared the remains of a U.S. bomber carrying nuclear weapons that crashed near the Thule base.

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An Indian Call for a Nuclear Arsenal

By BARRY BEARAK, August 22, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/082299india-nuke-policy.html

NEW DELHI, India -- For the past week, many of India's political elite have been thinking about that most chilling of subjects: the hows and whys of building a nuclear arsenal.

Occasioning this reflection was a six-page document titled "Indian Nuclear Doctrine." The paper was prepared by a government-appointed advisory board, and while it has been labeled a "draft" and lacks the stamp of official policy, it was made public Tuesday by National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra. He assured reporters that the contents should be taken "very seriously."

Much of the doctrine echoes what India has been saying for some time: it has a "right" to possess nuclear weapons, but it will never be the first to use them. It requires an arsenal that provides "credible minimum deterrence" against an enemy's nuclear attack.

Defining that minimum is the difficult part. So the logic of deterrence goes: A rival nation must find it "credible" that India can absorb its best shots and still deliver a hefty nuclear counterpunch.

Some here have suggested that such a minimum of deterrence can be achieved with an absolute minimum of weaponry. Deterrence, they say, is a mind game. It can be won without an overwhelming show of retaliatory might.

The advisory board's doctrine, however, seems to contend otherwise.

It recommends an arsenal that is able to deliver a nuclear blast from "a triad of aircraft, mobile land-based missiles and sea-based assets," one that can respond to an attack "in the shortest possible time" and employs a space-based early warning system.

To much of the world, it appeared that India was talking itself into the very thing its leaders said they would never be foolish enough to allow: a nuclear arms race.

China condemned the document. Pakistan, which 15 months ago matched India's nuclear tests with its own, said it would soon be matching its archfoe with a published doctrine of its own. Its leaders have never placed much confidence in the Indian pledge not to fire first.

The State Department spokesman, James Rubin, said, "We think it would be unwise to move in the direction of developing a nuclear deterrent and encouraging the other country to develop a nuclear deterrent and thereby creating an action-reaction cycle that will increase the risks to both countries."

For more than a year, State Department officials have been trying to persuade the Indians in particular to resist escalation. If the nuclear genie could not be put back in the bottle, it was at least hoped the genie would not be asked for a triad of wishes: air, land and sea delivery systems.

For their part, the Indians are tired of such preaching. The doctrine's preamble describes a hypocritical world "where nuclear weapons for a select few are sought to be legitimized for an indefinite future" while other nations forgo such defenses.

India believes its security concerns are as justified as anyone else's -- and perhaps more so. In its 52 years, it has fought one all-out war with China, which has been taking steps to upgrade its own nuclear arsenal, and three with Pakistan.

Skirmishes with Pakistani forces go on continuously. Recently, the two nations almost found themselves in War No. 4 in the mountains of the disputed territory of Kashmir. In that instance, India was widely praised for showing restraint, but similar self-discipline seemed lacking on Aug. 10 when an Indian fighter jet shot down a slow-moving Pakistani reconnaissance plane, killing all 16 aboard. The Indians said the plane had strayed across the border, though most of the wreckage landed in Pakistan.

Both rivals have recently tested intermediate-range missiles. Presumably, both are busy on the miniaturization required to attach a nuclear device to a warhead. Last week, scientists from each nation boasted they had the know-how to build a neutron bomb.

In India, the nuclear document has been met with a hail of criticism, almost all for its timing rather than its content. The quasi-official document was distributed by a caretaker government that in two weeks faces the first round in a staggered series of elections. "Nuclear arms are not gifts to be unwrapped by the electorate at the hustings," the Times of India reproached in an editorial.

That government, a coalition headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party, has enjoyed a surge in popularity due to the recent confrontation in Kashmir. Indians are confident they bested the Pakistanis in that fighting -- and Bharatiya Janata's leader, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, has been given much of the credit. Defense is a favored issue for the party.

The proposed doctrine places the authority to launch a nuclear attack in the hands of the prime minister.

On Friday, Vajpayee seemed bemused by the fuss the document has caused. He emphasized that it is only a draft and repeated India's oft-repeated appeal for the entire world to dispose of the tools of Armageddon: "Let all nuclear nations come forward for destruction of their arsenals and India would take the lead toward making this world a nuclear-free one."

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Swiss 'secret army' scandal
Defence Minister Adolf Ogi - "unimaginable" consequences

August 23, 1999 World: Europe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_427000/427606.stm

The head of Switzerland's secret service has been suspended as part of an investigation into a multi-million dollar fraud and the discovery of a huge cache of arms.

The scandal has led to widespread speculation of a high-level connection to organised crime or even the setting up of a secret army.

At a hastily arranged news conference on Sunday, the Swiss Defence Minister, Adolf Ogi, said the investigation into the fraud case had taken on new and undreamed of dimensions with the discovery near the capital, Berne, of an arms cache containing hundreds of weapons.

He said he had suspended military intelligence chief Peter Regli with immediate effect at his own request because Mr Regli "did not want to stand in the way of the Investigation."

Massive fraud

Mr Ogi said the arms discovery followed the arrest earlier this month of an accountant in the intelligence service, Dino Bellasi, who has been accused of embezzling over 8.5million Swiss francs ($5m) from the defence department.

The scale of the fraud on its own would make it the largest of its kind in the history of the Swiss Government.

Secret army

One Sunday newspaper, Sonntagsblick, said Bellasi had links with the Serbian secret services and the arms were destined for a secret intervention force being created within the Swiss army.

But Mr Regli, who was also present at the news conference, denied the reports. "Bellasi has put out an enormous, grotesque web of lies," he said. "Why would we need a secret army?"

Swiss politicians have been questioning how such a scandal could have come about in the secret service, which only employs about 130 people, without the knowledge of senior officials.

There have been calls for a fullscale parliamentary inquiry.

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Taiwan candidate wants A-bombs to counter China

August 22, 1999 Web posted at: 4:49 AM EDT (0849 GMT)
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9908/22/BC-TAIWAN-CHINA-POLITICS.reut/

TAIPEI (Reuters) -- The presidential candidate for a small pro-independence party said on Sunday Taiwan should develop nuclear weapons to counter China.

The Taiwan Independence Party, which wants to declare a formal break from the mainland and form an independent Republic of Taiwan, nominated its chairman Cheng Pang-cheng to run for the March 2000 presidential election.

"Aside from strengthening people's readiness for war, Taiwan has no other option but to develop nuclear weapons in order to ensure national independence and security," Cheng said in his acceptance speech.

Taiwan's government has repeatedly said it would not develop nuclear weapons.

Under Taiwan law, all candidates must have 250,000 signatures of support before they can stand in presidential elections. Analysts said it was not certain whether Cheng's small party could garner these endorsements.

Since a 1949 civil war that split them, China has viewed Nationalist-ruled Taiwan as a insubordinate province that must be brought under its rule -- by force if necessary.

A new round of tensions broke out last month when Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui asserted that ties between Taiwan and China must be on a "special state-to-state" basis, seen by Beijing as a further push for outright independence.

China has responded with a stream of furious rhetoric against Lee and regular reports from its propaganda machine of military drills and troop preparations.

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Taiwan Blames China for Instability

By Christopher Bodeen Associated Press Writer Friday, August 20, 1999; 10:56 a.m. EDT
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990820/V000535-082099-idx.html

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan blamed China today for recent tensions between them, saying Beijing's threat of force -- not Taipei's demand for a state-to-state relationship -- is the source of the instability.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Henry Chen disputed comments from China's ambassador to Washington, Li Zhaoxing, who had said that Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui was stoking tensions with provocative statements.

``The fact is, the Chinese communists don't rule out using force to resolve the Taiwan Strait issue,'' Chen said. ``They are the ones creating regional tensions.''

Sheu Ke-sheng, deputy head of the Cabinet's Mainland Affairs Council, suggested Beijing was wrongly ascribing hostile intentions to Lee's statement last month about relations with China and ought to ``have a good read'' of Taipei's official statements.

``From them, you can see our friendly and sincere position of pushing forward the peaceful and stable development of relations,'' Shu said.

Lee's call for ``state-to-state'' relations infuriated Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland eventually -- by force if necessary. The two split amid civil war in 1949.

China's official media warned this week that Chinese soldiers were prepared ``at any time'' to crush perceived plots to split China, and Li warned the United States to stay out of any conflict between the sides.

Today, China's Foreign Ministry called for a clear U.S. statement that it will not provide Taiwan with an anti-missile system being researched with Japan.

Including Taiwan would present a ``serious threat to China's national security,'' encourage Taiwanese independence forces and affect peace and stability in the region, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said.

Zhu called on the United States to ``clearly recognize the seriousness and danger of Lee Teng-hui's ``two states theory'','' the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

Taiwanese and U.S. officials say China hasn't yet translated its tough talk into preparations for military action.

The Science Times, however, published by the government-backed Chinese Academy of Sciences, said today that troops in southeastern Fujian province facing Taiwan have been placed on a war footing, that missile units have been arrayed along the front line and that Russian-made Su-27 warplanes have flown sorties to familiarize themselves with the area.

The newspaper said new Chinese cruise missiles were accurate to within 16 feet and confirmed that a missile launched by China in early August was the long-range Dongfeng-31, which can carry nuclear warheads.

In a campaign to pressure Lee into backing down, the state-run Chinese media has been awash with threatening reports of military preparations, exercises and possible military tactics that could be employed against Taiwan.

Lee, meanwhile, reiterated today his controversial demand for parity in dealings between Taiwan and China. In a meeting with a visiting Japanese lawmaker, he said positive development of relations with China were conditional on the sides regarding each other as equals.

``I hope the sides can continue to strengthen exchange and dialogue and use peaceful means to resolve mutual issues,'' Lee said, according to a statement issued by his office.

Washington has appealed for both sides to calm down.

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N.Korea: 2nd Korean War Unavoidable

By The Associated Press, August 22, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Koreas-US.html

TOKYO (AP) -- Military exercises between the United States and South Korean show the two allies' rising militarism, making a second Korean War ``unavoidable,'' North Korea said Sunday.

In recent days, Pyongyang has regularly said the 12-day joint exercises could lead to war, but it had not called hostilities inevitable.

America and South Korea have been conducting war games to simulate a coordinated response to a North Korean invasion as part of their annual joint military exercises.

``The United States and South Korea are in a belligerent relationship,'' said an editorial in the Rodong Shinmun, the newspaper of the North's ruling Workers' Party, monitored in Tokyo by the RadioPress News Agency. ``A second Korean War has become unavoidable.''

The two Koreas fought a war from 1950-53, after the peninsula was divided into the communist North and capitalist South following the 1945 liberation from Japanese colonial rule.

The United States keeps 37,000 troops in South Korea under a defense treaty.

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Rain on 'Sunshine' Policy
N. Korean Missile Test Could Upset Reconciliation

By Doug Struck Washington Post Foreign Service Monday, August 23, 1999; Page A10
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/23/051l-082399-idx.html

SEOULIf North Korea decides to spurn international warnings and test-fire a ballistic missile, the first casualty may be South Korea's "sunshine" policy of seeking friendlier ties with the North.

President Kim Dae Jung said recently that the policy, a keystone of his administration, will continue. There is no alternative, he contends. But his supporters acknowledge it will be politically impossible to pursue engagement with the North while Pyongyang is shunning cooperation with the South.

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, responding to reports of new test preparations by Pyongyang, have appealed to and warned North Korea not to test-fire a long-range ballistic missile, which would sharply increase tensions in the region. A year ago Pyongyang tested a missile that flew over Japan and seriously unnerved its neighbors. The immediacy of the current threat has diminished, and a Japanese defense official said last week there are no preparations that would indicate a launch within the next two months. And Pyongyang has floated a couple of hints that it is willing to negotiate over the issue.

But there is no guarantee those hints--or any resulting negotiations--would bear fruit. North Korea has continued to insist vigorously that it has a "sovereign right" to launch and will do so if it feels the time is right.

Domestic supporters and opponents of Kim's engagement policy in South Korea acknowledge that public reaction to a launch would probably force a halt in the most visible fruit of the sunshine policy, the cruise ships that travel from South Korea to Mount Kumgang in the North.

"The tours would have to stop," acknowledged Assemblyman Jay K. Yoo, a Kim supporter. "All of the aid must be halted if they fire again."

The tours, arranged by the Hyundai Group, have brought about 95,000 Korean tourists to the North's "diamond mountain," a scenic spot on North Korea's east coast that is rich in history. Although the tourists are denied contact with North Korean civilians, it is the first large-scale visitation from one side to the other since the Korean War.

Hyundai so far has paid North Korea $166 million for the tourism rights, and has promised $942 million over five years. Those payments have brought increasing criticism in the South, particularly with news last week that the impoverished communist government has purchased 30 MiG fighter planes and has continued work on the missile.

"We are on our knees with a bundle of money, saying, 'Please take it.' And North Korea is taking it with one hand and slapping us with the other," said Lee Jung Hoon, an analyst at Yonsei University.

Kim Dae Jung has long espoused a policy of replacing decades of bristling rhetoric toward North Korea with nonbelligerence and offers to increase economic ties. "Peace on the Korean Peninsula requires that we guard our security and promote reconciliation with the North at the same time," he said in a recent speech.

Skeptics in South Korea, which has been in a wary standoff with its northern neighbor since the Korean War armistice was signed in 1953, were compelled to curb their criticism after Kim took office in February of last year, but now they have stepped up their denunciations of the policy.

"It's naive and impractical" to believe the sunshine policy will alter North Korea's behavior, said Lee Hoi Chang, head of South Korea's main opposition party. "So far, it has had no effect at all."

"We are going to have harsh criticism from society and from our own people" if there is a North Korean launch, a presidential aide acknowledged, "but we have to stick to the engagement policy. There is no other way."

In step with the Clinton administration, Kim asked for and got National Assembly approval last week to continue the construction of two light-water reactors in North Korea. The reactors are key to a 1994 deal in which Pyongyang agreed to give up its nuclear program, and Washington is anxious not to further jeopardize the so-called Framework Agreement. South Korea has agreed to provide $3.2 billion of the $4.6 billion cost.

But many critics of the sunshine policy say it has failed in its basic purpose of moderating Pyongyang's policies. The North Koreans responded to Kim's policy by sending spy submarines into South Korean waters in June and December last year. And North Korean military boats engaged in a gun battle with South Korean vessels in June that left at least one North Korean craft sunk with an unknown number of crewmen.

"Sunshine was supposed to be a two-way avenue, but they have not reciprocated," said Lho Kyong Soo, a professor of international politics at Seoul National University.

Kim's supporters say there have been benefits of the engagement policy. The Kumgang tourism is the most obvious, they say, but they also see subtle changes in North Korean rhetoric as signs that a slight thaw might come. "They have stopped saying that South Korea is a puppet of the United States," said Yoo. "There have been lots of successes of 'sunshine.' Besides, we've done confrontation and strong measures in the past; it didn't help much."

Special correspondent Joohee Cho in Seoul contributed to this story.

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South Korea steps up efforts to stop North Korean missile launch

August 23, 1999 Web posted at: 2:45 AM EDT (0645 GMT)
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9908/22/PM-Koreas-Missile.ap/

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea today stepped up diplomatic efforts to stop North Korea from launching a new ballistic missile by holding high-level talks with China and Japan.

South Korean Foreign Minister Hong Soon-young was scheduled to meet with his Japanese counterpart, Masahiko Komura, today in Tokyo.

In Beijing, China and South Korea planned to discuss North Korea today in the first ever meeting between defense ministers of the two former Korean War adversaries.

Also today, South Korea's Unification Minister Lim Dong-won left Seoul for a weeklong visit to the United States, which includes talks with former Defense Secretary William Perry, Washington's point man on North Korea.

The three-pronged South Korean efforts have the same agenda: what carrot it and the other two allies could offer if North Korea decides not to launch a missile experts say could reach Hawaii and Alaska.

North Korea has reportedly completed preparations to test-fire a long-range missile, but has expressed willingness to negotiate in response to international appeals and warnings to scrap the launch.

"We are always ready for negotiation if the hostile nations honestly ask for it out of an intention to alleviate our concern," a spokesman of the North's Foreign Ministry said last week.

The unidentified spokesman said his country developed missiles because the United States wants to invade the North and has deployed a large number of weapons and troops in South Korea.

Analysts believe the North wants economic and political benefits in return for holding off on a test, which many fear would unsettle security in the region.

South Korean officials attached special significance to the meeting between their defense minister, Cho Sung-tae, and his Chinese counterpart, Chi Haotian.

The two countries have shed much of their Cold War enmity through economic links. They are now each other's third-largest trading partners, with a trade volume of $23.7 billion.

China remains North Korea's last remaining major communist ally. But their relations have cooled since Beijing opened formal relations with Seoul in 1992.

South Korea believes Beijing is in the best position among major powers to persuade Pyongyang to forgo the reported missile launch.

In Tokyo, the Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers agreed there were signs North Korea may be ready for dialogue.

Japan has openly threatened economic penalties if the launch takes place, possibly including a ban on hundreds of millions of dollars sent by pro-North Korea Korean residents of Japan to their impoverished homeland each year.

In San Francisco, Lim was scheduled to meet Perry later this week.

The meeting comes amid reports that the United States has offered North Korea wide-ranging economic and political benefits if Pyongyang holds off on a missile test.

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S.Korea Defense Minister In Landmark China Visit

Updated 4:03 AM ET August 23, 1999
http://webcrawler-news.excite.com/news/r/990823/04/international-china-korea

BEIJING (Reuters) - South Korean Defense Minister Cho Seong-tae arrived in China Monday for the first high-level military talks between the two countries, amid efforts to persuade North Korea not to test-fire a long-range missile.

Kicking off a six-day visit which South Korea's defense ministry said was aimed at improving bilateral ties, Cho was due to met Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian later Monday.

Cho, accompanied by about 20 South Korean officials, made no comment to reporters on his arrival in Beijing.

Last week South Korean media said Cho would seek Chinese help in persuading North Korea not to test-fire a Taepodong-2 missile, believed capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska.

North Korea's launch a year ago of a three-stage Taepodong-1 missile, parts of which soared over Japan, shocked the United States and its Asian allies and renewed regional interest in a U.S-proposed Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system.

Pyongyang said it had only launched a satellite.

China, which has opposed the TMD idea since it was first floated by Washington, demanded last week that the United States exclude Taiwan from the anti-missile umbrella and criticised Taipei for the interest it expressed in the scheme.

The Chinese demand came after Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui was quoted as saying TMD "not only meets the needs of the current situation but also is in line with the long-term interest of the country."

Beijing and Taipei have been locked in a war of words and military posturing since Lee declared last month that bilateral ties should be on a "special state-to-state" basis.

China, which has threatened to invade if Taiwan declares independence, saw Lee's declaration as a lurch toward statehood.

The United States and Japan have called on China, North Korea's only significant international ally, to use its leverage with Pyongyang to check the expected test of the Taepodong-2.

Chinese leaders have said they would convey those concerns to North Korea, but have also said they believe the United States is exaggerating Pyongyang's missile threat.

China fought on North Korea's side in the 1950-53 Korean War and has contributed food aid to help its neighbor cope with a crippling famine, but the extent of its clout in Pyongyang is unclear.

On August 3, China test-fired its latest long-range missile, the Dongfeng-31, an event some analysts said would make North Korea less willing to heed Beijing's call for restraint in its missile program.

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SKorea, NKorea in Missile Dispute

By The Associated Press, August 23, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Koreas-Missile.html

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea today stepped up diplomatic efforts to stop North Korea from launching a new ballistic missile by holding high-level talks with China and Japan.

South Korean Foreign Minister Hong Soon-young met his Japanese counterpart, Masahiko Komura, today in Tokyo.

In Beijing, the defense chiefs of China and South Korea also opened talks -- the first ever meeting between defense ministers of the two former Korean War adversaries.

North Korea has reportedly completed preparations to test-fire a long-range missile, but has expressed willingness to negotiate in response to international appeals and warnings to scrap the launch.

``We are always ready for negotiation if the hostile nations honestly ask for it out of an intention to alleviate our concern,'' a spokesman of the North's Foreign Ministry said last week.