U.S. Federal Regulator Rejects Y2K Compliance as Standard for 103 U.S. Power Reactors

NRC Allows Potentially Untested Y2K "Fixes" in Nuclear Safety Related Systems Will Rely on Chronically Unreliable Back-Up Power Systems With only 7 Days Back-Up Fuel

August 25, 1999 FContact: Mary Olson 202-328-0002 - maryo@nirs.org
NEWS from NIRS - http://www.nirs.org - nirsnet@nirs.org

NRC Will Not Require Industry-wide Year 2000 Drill

Relying on narrow and confusing definitions, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has officially asserted its decision to exempt the nation's 103 large nuclear power reactors from a Y2K compliance standard. Y2K readiness is the NRC's choice which allows for work-arounds and other short cuts. Testing of systems to show Y2K readiness is suggested, but not required. The agency goes further to assert that specific regulation for Y2K readiness is also not required.

At the heart of this move is the definition of safety. Although NRC is by law charged with providing "reasonable assurance of adequate public health and safety," when talking about nuclear reactors, they use the word 'safety' as a term of art. In this context NRC means specifically only the parts of the reactor that stop the nuclear chain reaction and put the reactor on stand-by. These systems are for the most part not computerized.

"The problem is that both Chernobyl and Three Mile Island are cases of events that happened with the reactor on-line, not during shut down. Taking TMI off line did not stop the nuclear fuel from melting. Some systems that were installed in U.S. reactors after Three Mile Island to increase the margin of safety have been shown to be susceptible to Y2K malfunctions," said Mary Olson, NIRS Nuclear Y2K Project Coordinator. "Our petitions would have required that all systems "relevant to safety" be assessed, remediated, and tested to show Y2K compliance. Aren't these systems more important than an automated teller machine?"

These moves came via a mismanaged release of information over the past week (August 17- 23). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission officially denied NIRS petitions for the establishment of new regulations to specifically address nuclear safety in the context of Y2K-related computer failures submitted last December.

NRC also struck down any requirement for an industry-wide Y2K drill to build worker and management readiness to cope with challenges which the roll-over to 2000 might bring. A limited drill is being planned by NRC and a handful of utilities.

"Perhaps most disturbing is the official rejection of our call to increase back-up power reliability at the nation's nuclear sites. Nuclear reactors depend on another source of electricity to insure that vital monitoring and cooling systems operate. These systems are essential, even if the reactor is off-line. Our research shows that back-up diesel generators are just not as reliable as people have a right to expect, given that Y2K failures may cause local and regional power outages," said Paul Gunter, Director of the NIRS Nuclear Reactor Watch Dog Project. "Diesel generators have mechanical failures, fuel problems, are prone to overheating, and in some cases, vulnerable to the Y2K Bug itself!"

"John Koskinen, Head of the President's White House Council on Year 2000 Transition, has been telling state officials that they should assume an electrical outage of three weeks duration as part of their contingency planning. While Koskinen is not asserting that such an outage will occur, shouldn't the nation's nuclear reactor operators also take this as the baseline for their contingency planning?" Said Mary Olson, NIRS Nuclear Y2K Project Coordinator. "Loss of off-site power and loss of back-up power, also called Station Blackout, is the single largest contributor of risk to reactor operation, according to NRC. What makes January 1, 2000 unique is that every reactor system in the country, and indeed, the world will be challenged on the same day."

NRC's rejection of NIRS petition on back-up power states that only 7 day's supply of diesel fuel is required to be at each reactor site.

An NRC press release announcing their action was posted prior to effective notification of NIRS or publication in the Federal Register. Coincidence or calculation timed this long-coming official rejection during NIRS well-publicized Nuclear Free Great Lakes and Northeast Action Camps when all NIRS Program staff were away.

Text of the original NIRS petitions is posted on http://nirs.org
and the NRC response is available at
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=1999_re
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=1999_register&docid=99-21751-filed gister&docid=99-21750-filed
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=1999_register&docid=99-21752-filed

Citizens living near nuclear power stations around the world are mobilizing attention to these, forming the Y2K World Atomic Safety Holiday (WASH) Campaign. Leaders are reaching out to the 34 nations where the world's 433 nuclear power reactors operate. A Y2K WASH presence will be in Berlin during the G-8 meeting on Y2K contingency planning on September 21. A forum sponsored by Y2K WASH and the Nobel Prize winning International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War will address Y2K challenges to both nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons systems.

--NIRS--

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Subject: [y2k-nuclear] SEPT 1 START GLOBAL DE-ALERTING FAX CAMPAIGN
Date: Tue, 24 Aug 1999 18:53:40 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign <nonukes@foesyd.org.au>
nonukes@foesyd.org.au http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd

APPEAL: THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE WORLD BETWEEN NOW AND DECEMBER 31 -- FROM SEPT 1, FAX YELTSIN, CLINTON TO TAKE N-WEAPONS OFF ALERT.

PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN, +7-095-205-4330,
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON, +1-202-456-2461,

Dear All,

I am writing to urge you to fax Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton from Sept 1 onwards to take strategic nuclear weapons off alert before December, and to ask that the de-alerting of strategic nuclear weapons be discussed at the coming September 21 meeting of the G8.

This is of absolutely vital importance. Getting 5000 nuclear missiles off alert status before the Y2k bug plays havoc with their command and control systems is just about the most important thing anyone can possibly do.

Arguably there is simply no other issue this important between now and December/January. It might be literally a matter of survival.

Please try to fax from September 1 onwards, preferably not before.

Please use the fax numbers I have provided. The numbers here work. I've just checked them.

Try and get everyone you know to do it. If you are a large organisation please try and get all your members to do it.

John Hallam

Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord street, Newtown, NSW, Australia,
Fax(61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html

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Some countries won't be Y2K ready

8/26/99- Updated 08:45 PM ET
http://usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncsthu03.htm

WASHINGTON (AP) - The United States and at least five other countries do not expect to finish fixing their Year 2000 computer bugs until just weeks before the new year, an international survey reported Thursday.

Two other countries, Slovakia and Bolivia, do not believe they will finish until next year, meaning problems could occur after midnight strikes on New Year's Eve.

Bruce McConnell, director of the International Y2K Cooperation Center, said the late completion dates are not necessarily reason to expect catastrophe. Rather, he said, the survey points to areas in which to intensify contingency planning.

Y2K readiness is of greatest concern in developed countries such as the United States because they are the most dependent on information technology, Y2K planners say.

Many computers were originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of the year, so some might not be able to differentiate between 2000 and 1900. Unless they are reprogrammed in time, computers could malfunction.

The United States listed a December completion date for computers in the health care industry. Health care has been particularly troublesome because doctors, hospitals and payment systems are so decentralized.

''The health sector is the one that everyone is further behind in, so it's not surprising that the U.S. is also getting finished in health later,'' McConnell said. ''I think it's a cause for action, a cause for more attention to be given to making sure the health sector is ready.''

U.S. health care industry leaders have insisted that they will be ready for Jan. 1, although a recent congressional study said that assurances from industry groups have been based on surveys that may be unreliable because of low response rates.

President Clinton's Y2K czar, John Koskinen, said in an Aug. 5 report that although many health-care organizations have made progress, ''serious concerns still exist'' among those that started planning late or have yet to take significant remedial steps.

''Contingency planning will be critical for these organizations as we move into the fall,'' he said.

Other countries not expected to finish until December are: Pakistan and Macedonia, for air transportation; Bulgaria, for health; Bolivia, for government services; Colombia, for customs, and Angola, for sea and land transportation, customs and health.

Bolivia also would not be ready with its customs systems until the new year, while Slovakia does not expect to complete its health systems this year.

The International Y2K Cooperation Center, a clearinghouse set up by the United Nations and the World Bank, received responses from 72 of 195 countries. The completion dates were self-reported by the national Y2K coordinator of each country. Completion was defined as implementing 90% of the fixes.

''No country in the world will get all of the systems fixed by January 1, but for those with lots of systems left to be fixed, it heightens the importance of knowing what they are going to do to continue delivery of essential services,'' McConnell said.

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Nuclear Plants

August 25, 1999 Los Angeles
http://www.latimes.com/excite/990825/t000075762.html

* I am an engineer who has been working on Y2K issues for nuclear power plants and I disagree; Helen Caldicott really is Chicken Little ("The Sky, Indeed, May Be Falling," Commentary, Aug. 17). Her fear mongering about nuclear plant accidents at the turn of the year is based on fiction. The effort to be sure that this country's nuclear power plants will remain safe and continue to operate through the beginning of the new year has been extensive. While safety has always had the highest priority, no real safety problems were uncovered in the analysis and simulation of Y2K.

Our colleagues overseas are also in good shape with regard to Y2K and safety system issues. Even the concerns about the former Soviet Union's nuclear plants appear unwarranted because they use less advanced control systems without digital computers. You do not need a computer to open and close valves and make electricity.

EDWARD (TED) L. QUINN Past President American Nuclear Society Dana Point

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The Sky, Indeed, May Be Falling; Commentary;Millennium bug could cause a catastrophe at any of the world's 433 nuclear power plants.; PERSPECTIVE ON THE Y2K PROBLEM;

Tuesday, August 17, 1999 Home Edition Section: Metro ID: 0990073327 Words: 742 Byline: HELEN M. CALDICOTT

http://www.latimes.com/cgi-bin/archsearch-cgi?DBQUERY=caldicott&DATE=last+30+days&SECT=&SORT=d%3Ah&NITEMS=25

Helen M. Caldicott is president of the Standing for Truth About Radiation Foundation, a Long Island, N.Y.-based research and education foundation whose focus is nuclear reactors While societal disruptions are bound to occur in every country at the turn of the century, the most serious and unforgiving aspect of the millennium bug could be a catastrophe at any of the world's 433 nuclear power plants or an accident involving control of the 4,400 nuclear warheads that are maintained on hair-trigger alert in both Russia and the United States....

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Nuclear shipments thought to be off Australia

Australian Broadcasting, August 27, 1999
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/weekly/newsnat-27aug1999-51.htm

Two armed British freighters carrying plutonium-based nuclear fuels are believed to be off south-west Australia.

Greenpeace believes Pacific Pintail and Pacific Teal are moving toward the Tasman Sea and will cross the region early next month.

Greenpeace says the two ships will be in central Pacific waters when the 21 nation Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit is held in New Zealand in September.

They estimate the ships will have reached Japan by September 23, a week ahead of the 16 nation South Pacific Forum summit in Palau.

Previous forums have strongly opposed the shipments.

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Environment and Development
Radioactive, nuclear dumping worries State

The Times of Zambia (Lusaka) August 12, 1999 by Times Reporter
http://www.africanews.org/environ/stories/19990812_feat2.html

Lusaka - Government says it is concerned with the tendency by Western countries to dump radioactive and nuclear materials in Third World countries.

Central Board of Health (CBH) acting director general Gavin Silwamba said this yesterday when he opened the Africa regional seminar on the security and safety of nuclear materials and radiation sources at Lusaka's Pamodzi Hotel. Citing five cases of foiled attempted trafficking of used nuclear materials into Zambia by foreigners, Dr Silwamba challenged African nuclear experts to curb the clandestine movements of the materials.

He said radioactive and nuclear materials if not properly managed on the continent would wreck havoc resulting in environmental degradation and diseases. "The annual report of 1997 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicates that by the end of 1997, the agency confirmed 207 incidents of which 72 covered both radioactive and nuclear materials.

"It is sad to note that the major victims in all these are the underdeveloped countries. In Zambia, I am aware that five cases of attempted illicit trafficking of spent nuclear materials were stopped because of timely action by security personnel" Dr Silwamba said. But Zambia was undertaking initiatives to develop strategies to improve the security and safety of nuclear materials and radioactive sources.

He hailed the IAEA and the UK based Radiation Protection Board for continued assistance to Zamb ()ia to safeguard itself against negative nuclear disposals. IAEA national liaison officer Samson Banda said the agency had released $200,000 to Zambia to improve its radiation protection and infrastructure.

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More Danger for Turkey

Saturday, August 28, 1999; Page A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/28/013l-082899-idx.html

The earthquake in Turkey has been disastrous for the region. Despite the seismic history of the area, however, the Turkish government plans to build 10 nuclear reactors by the year 2020. The first is to be at Akkuyu Bay on the southeast Mediterranean coast and is scheduled to become operational in the year 2005.

The Akkuyu site is only 25 kilometers from the Ecemis Fault. A 1991 study titled "Neotectonic Structural Features in the Alanuya-Mersin Shelf [in Southern Turkey]" by S. L. Gokcen et al. concluded that the Ecemis fault is active. A 1993 report by P. Gulkan and M. S. Yucemens stated that earthquakes with an intensity of greater than 8 on the Richter scale are possible in the Akkuyu region. Karl Buckthought, a Canadian seismologist, concluded in his 1997 report that there is a 50 percent chance that an earthquake in the magnitude of 7 Richter is a possibility within the next 40 years in Akkuyu Bay.

The building of atomic reactors in earthquake-prone Turkey should be of tremendous concern not only to the citizens of Turkey but also to its many neighbors. John Taylor of the Australian National University in his 1993 study identifies the countries that will be disastrously affected by a major accident in Akkuyu Bay. These countries include -- in addition to Turkey -- Cyprus, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

The international corporations that are bidding for the contract include Atomic Energy (Canada), Westinghouse (USA), Siemens (Germany) and Framatome (France). These corporations should be made to understand by the international community that nuclear technology has the potential of being catastrophic in the area. Building a nuclear plant at Akkuyu spells disaster not only for Turkey but its neighbors as well.

ATHANASIA GREGORIADES
New York

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Turkey's Parliament Endorses Amnesty

By The Associated Press, August 28, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Turkey-Amnesty.html

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- The Turkish parliament approved a controversial bill today that would free almost half of the 69,000 convicts behind bars, an effort to improve control over the country's troubled, overcrowded prisons.

The law comes days after the legislature approved another controversial bill that would pardon a number of autonomy-fighting Kurdish guerrillas who lay down their arms.

As a reaction to public anger over the incredible devastation resulting from the Aug. 17 quake, today's bill -- drafted weeks ago -- was amended to explicitly exclude contractors convicted of negligence for poorly made buildings.

The gesture was mostly symbolic, however, as the few builders prosecuted after previous quakes have mostly received only fines.

Justice Minister Hikmet Sami Turk said some 26,538 inmates could be set free within 20 days after the bill is approved by the president and printed in the official gazette. President Suleyman Demirel was expected to sign it later today.

The bill applies to most criminals convicted before April 23 who received sentences of up to 12 years in prison. All juveniles will be freed unconditionally.

The law also provides lighter prison terms for many other inmates, including those who committed murder.

Authorities hope the releases will allow the state to take better control of the country's crowded prisons, where riots, kidnapping and hunger strikes are common.

But inmates convicted of treason or crimes against the state do not stand to benefit, nor do those convicted of rape, corruption or arson attacks on forests. Kurdish separatists have been accused of burning state forests to damage the country's lucrative tourism industry.

The legislation also excludes some 10,000 Kurdish activists, guerrillas and people convicted on charges of radical Islamic or leftist activities.

The amnesty will not apply to imprisoned Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan and one of his commanders, Semdin Sakik, who were sentenced to death on charges of separatism and treason.

Turk, the justice minister, said the amnesty was sought in a bid to ``regain the inmates for society.''

If convicted of the same charges within three years of their release, the inmates will return to prison to serve the remainder of their old sentence, plus any new sentence, according to the law.

The legislature today also passed a bill that would pardon journalists convicted or charged of violating tough Turkish laws that ban articles deemed to be supportive of the Kurdish guerrillas.

Scores of journalists stand to benefit. But they will be put on a three-year probation and could be imprisoned again if courts find they wrote new articles supporting the rebels.

Dozens of journalists imprisoned on charges of membership of outlawed groups will not be pardoned.

---

Turkish law could pardon Kurds

USA Today "World" August 27, 1999
http://usatoday.com/news/world/nw1.htm

ISTANBUL, Turkey - Turkey's parliament on Thursday passed a law that could pardon a large number Kurdish guerrillas fighting for autonomy in southeastern Turkey and end 15 years of bitter fighting that has left about 37,000 people dead, mostly Kurds. The law came just one day after rebels from the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, announced they had started pulling out of the region. PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, sentenced to death by a Turkish court in June, had asked his followers to put down their arms. Ocalan and senior leaders of the PKK will not benefit from the law. The law has to be signed by Turkish President Suleyman Demirel and printed in the official gazette to become official, which could come as early as Friday.

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Quake Relief Effort Solidifying Bond Between Turkey and Israel

By STEPHEN KINZER, August 28, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/082899turkey-israel.html

DAPAZARI, Turkey -- Amid the scenes of horror and death that have afflicted this city since the earthquake last week, the brightest sign of life is a field hospital operated by doctors and nurses from the Israeli army.

Eight babies have been born here since the quake. One boy was named Israel, and one girl is called Ziona. Their names are symbols of how firmly the earthquake has sealed the alliance between Israel and Turkey.

"God bless the Israelis," said one new mother, Serap Balcioglu, whose child was born blue and seemingly lifeless but was revived by an emergency team at the hospital. "They're taking beautiful care of me. What would we do without them?"

Over the last few years, Israel and Turkey have built a strategic partnership that has altered the face of Middle East politics. Trade and tourism are booming in both directions.

Israeli pilots practice maneuvers in Turkish airspace, and Israeli technicians are modernizing Turkish combat jets. There are plans for Israel to share its high-tech skills with Turkey, and for Turkey to send some of its plentiful fresh water to Israel.

Military commanders, Cabinet ministers and business leaders agree that this new friendship makes good sense for both parties. But it took the earthquake to show that it has become more than political -- and has clearly taken deep root among ordinary people.

"There has been so much tourism and so many business and political contacts between the two countries in the last few years that almost everyone in Israel feels some kind of personal connection to Turkey," said Benjamin Krasna, an Israeli diplomat who has spent much of the last week working on earthquake relief projects. "You pick up a 16-page newspaper in Tel Aviv and six pages are about the quake. It shows what Turkey means to Israel today. Israel sees Turkey as a neighbor, a brother, a partner."

"We've sent relief teams to help after disasters in plenty of countries, and our people support that," Krasna said. "But those other disasters didn't provoke the same emotional response among our people. Things have changed because of the nature of our relationship with Turkey."

Israel was one of the first countries to respond to news of the earthquake, which devastated Adapazari and much of the surrounding area. It sent 350 search-and-rescue specialists with teams of dogs. They were at work the morning after the quake, and in the days that followed they found and saved 12 buried people.

The hospital team followed quickly, and set up operations in the muddy front yard of a damaged official building here. Doctors and nurses treated hundreds of earthquake victims, and now that the initial trauma is past they are dealing with infections, broken limbs and all the other medical problems that are normal in a community of 300,000 people.

Israeli officials are now discussing the possibility of sponsoring long-term earthquake relief projects in Turkey. They may build a town to replace one of those that were destroyed, or perhaps assume responsibility for rebuilding hospitals in the affected area. Top officials of the Foreign and Defense ministries, accompanied by the director general of Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office, have already been here to survey Turkey's needs.

"Israelis are absolutely obsessed with the earthquake," said Barry Rubin, an Israeli scholar who has written extensively about the Turkish-Israeli relationship.

"There's a psychological as well as a political reason for this," Rubin said. "Jews and Turks have historically been thought of as outsiders, especially in Europe. They are two peoples who are extremely conscious of who their friends are. But even though I've been following this subject for 10 years, I'm amazed at how many messages I've received since the earthquake. Israelis want to know what they can do to help, and Turks want to say how grateful they are."

Not everyone in Turkey considers Israel an ideal partner. Some leaders of the Islamic political movement have suggested that Muslim countries, including traditional enemies of Israel like Iran and Libya, would be more suitable.

Many Turks feel a solidarity with Palestinians, and are deeply disturbed when they see pictures of Israeli soldiers shooting at or beating Palestinian protesters in the West Bank. Others complain that Israel has not been vigorous enough in its condemnation of Kurdish rebels who have been fighting the Turkish army for years.

But in recent days, the relationship between Turkey and Israel has deepened. It is no longer the province only of generals, politicians and corporate executives, but of the peoples of both countries.

"After what has happened since the earthquake," said Hasan Koni, a professor of international relations at Ankara University, "it's going to be very hard for anyone to criticize the relationship. Even people who have been suspicious of Israel must now see that after the United States, Israel has become the country we can trust most. That is now clearer than ever."

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Pressure for U.S. in Iraqi Aid

By The Associated Press, August 27, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-UN-Iraq.html

UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- The United States is coming under increasing pressure to allow more goods into Iraq, not only from Baghdad but from top U.N. officials and Security Council members as well.

The head of the U.N.'s humanitarian program, France and other members of the Security Council have expressed desperation with the United States for placing on hold hundreds of aid contracts worth millions of dollars.

The United States is wary Iraq will somehow use equipment that could be purchased under the contracts to help rebuild its weapons programs.

Iraq appears to be taking advantage of the situation by stepping up its campaign to have sanctions lifted and pointing to the conduct of the United States in the U.N. Sanctions Committee, which reviews what food, medicine and other aid can be purchased by Iraq through U.N.-supervised oil sales.

Iraqi Ambassador Saeed Hasan on Thursday accused the United States and its main ally on the committee, Britain, of essentially paralyzing the U.N. oil-for-food program by placing so many contracts on hold.

In the committee, the United States has placed holds on more than 450 of the 500 contracts that haven't been approved. Britain has the rest.

``To leave the matter as it is means permitting the United States and the United Kingdom to destroy the last remaining modicum of humanitarian content in the program,'' Hasan wrote to the Security Council.

The head of the U.N.'s humanitarian program, Benon Sevan, wasn't quite as blunt, but he did tell the Security Council on Thursday that the ``excessive'' number of contracts placed on hold were having serious implications for the program.

Even Secretary-General Kofi Annan has gotten involved, calling this week for an ``all out effort'' to expedite approval of contracts.

Iraq has been barred from selling its oil on the open market since the Security Council imposed sanctions following its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Concerned that the Iraqi people were suffering the brunt of the sanctions, the council in 1996 began allowing Iraq to sell limited amounts of oil provided the proceeds went to buy food, medicine and other humanitarian goods.

Iraq is also allowed to buy spare parts and equipment for its oil industry and machinery to improve its electrical and telecommunications sectors.

But the United States has kept a close eye on contracts for those items, fearing Saddam Hussein's government will direct the equipment towards weapons. No contract for telecommunications goods, for example, has been approved.

The absence of U.N. inspectors in Iraq has only increased U.S. concerns, said the deputy U.S. ambassador, Peter Burleigh.

But diplomats say other council members -- with the exception of Britain and the Netherlands, which chairs the sanctions committee -- are also frustrated with the United States' position.

France, which is highly critical of the way the United States has politicized the committee's work, has placed one hold on a contract submitted by a U.S. company. But the move was widely seen as a ``revenge hold,'' Western diplomats said.

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Saddam is a growing threat

Deseret News editorial, August 23, 1999
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/1,1249,115004894,00.html?

Iraq recently added a new weapon to its arsenal. The Pentagon reports that the Iraqi military has extended the range of its SA-2, a surface-to-air missile often directed at British and American aircraft.

The U.S. military quickly downplayed the dangers posed by this development. According to Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon, the extension of the SA-2's range "has not been a significant capability in terms of increasing the threat" to American forces. With Iraqi radar effectively incapacitated, the accuracy of any surface-to-air missile is dramatically reduced. Fortunately, for the time being, this missile's extended range appears to be relatively inconsequential.

However, even modest developments in Iraq's military capability underscore the shortcomings of the United Nations' policy in Iraq. Though Saddam Hussein's recent successes may be small, he continues to claim both symbolic and substantive victories against the international community.

In spite of Iraq's repeated transgression of international law and U.N. resolutions, Hussein remains at liberty to develop his compliment of conventional weapons as well as weapons of mass destruction. Because of U.N. timidity, he currently extends his war machine with impunity. Due to limited no-fly zones and vacillation from the Clinton administration, Iraq's military development faces few substantive impediments.

Hussein's bad behavior has apparently paid off. His mistreatment of U.N. weapons inspectors was only rewarded by their prompt removal. Freed from the world's watchful eye, he continues to strengthen his position. The improvements made to SA-2 are only the tip of the iceberg. A relatively innocuous development at first blush, the missile serves as a frightening indicator of probable advancements in Iraq's nuclear and biological weaponry.

The United Nations, the Clinton administration and the international community must reassess their policy in Iraq. As demonstrated by the emergence of the long-range SA-2, the current program simply isn't working.

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LANDMINES: Vets to help elephant mine victim (Thailand)

USA Today "World", August 27 1999
http://usatoday.com/news/world/nw1.htm http://usatoday.com/news/photos/26elep1.jpg

LAMPANG, Thailand - Veterinarians used a crane and harness system Thursday to ease the pressure of an elephant's 3 ton weight after she stepped on a land mine. Ten bones and at least two-thirds of the flesh of Motola's left front foot were destroyed by an explosion nearly two weeks ago as she foraged for food along the Myanmar-Thai border, scene of a half-century of insurgencies. Since arriving at an elephant hospital in northern Thailand three days later, technicians have been trying to rig a harness made of woven canvas for Motola to use in place of a crossbar for support. Experts are arriving from around Thailand to give advice on how to save as much of the foot as possible to fit her with a prosthesis. She may have surgery over the weekend.

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Danger: U.S. could go to war on the wrong side

by Jonathan Power, Published Friday, August 27, 1999, in the Miami Herald
http://www.herald.com/content/today/opinion/digdocs/089940.htm

Madrid -- After Kosovo, why not Colombia, land of the drug barons and 40 years of near-continuous civil war?

The world may drop its jaw at the idea of a NATO-like international-military intervention to pacify leftist guerrilla groups, army-backed and fascist-inclined paramilitaries and the world's most ruthless drug cartels. But some in Bogota are touting it as a necessary solution.

And if not an international force, then the U.S. military.

Don't drop your jaw. None other than the U.S. commander in chief, Bill Clinton, said last month that vital American interests are at stake in Colombia and that it is ``very much in our national security interests to do what we can.''

When the U.S. President uses these code words, it essentially means that the backbone of the U.S. military, intelligence and national-security bodies has decided that the United States is prepared to go to any lengths -- even war -- to deal with the problem.

Clinton's statement may have been sparked by the relatively trivial loss of a U.S. military reconnaissance plane flying over Colombia. But it comes after a long period of slow-burning, mounting frustration at the inability of successive Colombian governments to get to grips with the armed gangs that threaten to destabilize the government and with the narcotic traffickers who supply hard drugs to the American market.

If U.S. intervention were likely to be evenhanded, perhaps there could be an argument for it. After all, Colombia often is exhibit No. 1 for those who say: Look what happens when the outside world doesn't intervene -- local fires just burn brighter and fiercer.

But evenhanded doesn't appear in the current lexicon of Pentagon thinking on Colombia.

Almost perversely, the Clinton administration seems to be ignoring what the New York-based Human Rights Watch describes as ``the root of these abuses . . . the Colombian army's consistent and pervasive failure to ensure human-rights standards and distinguish civilians from combatants.''

Terrible violence is being inflicted both upon each other and on civilian innocents by the three sides in the armed struggle. But by no stretch of the independent reporting available can it be said that the left-wing guerrillas are the most vicious or the most responsible. The consensus is that the army is in league with the right-wing paramilitaries who, in turn, are in league with the drug mafia. It is they who set the pace of assassinations, organize death squads, inflict torture and practice widespread intimidation.

The army not only has failed to move against the rightist paramilitaries in any significant way; it has tolerated their activity, even providing some of them with intelligence and logistical support.

In a 1998 report the Bogota office of the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights observed that ``witnesses frequently state that massacres were perpetrated by members of the armed forces passing themselves off as paramilitaries.''

It is true that both the governments of Ernesto Samper and Andres Pastrana have suspended or closed down particular units, such as the army's notorious 20th Brigade. Yet officers are rarely, if ever, prosecuted, and some even have been promoted. Occasionally there is a dismissal.

``Defending human rights in Colombia is a dangerous profession,'' says Susan Osnos of Human Rights Watch. Yet it continues to attract unusually dedicated people. Last year when assassins gunned down the president of a human-rights committee in Medellin, the drug traffickers' hometown, he was the fourth president to be killed since 1987. Even so, someone else has taken his place.

The Clinton administration's attempts to be evenhanded have been derisory:

On one hand, it allows the State Department to issue human-rights reports critical of the Colombian establishment. Last year's report accused the government of ``tacit acquiescence'' of abuses, and in May 1998 the United States revoked the visa of one particularly corrupt and cruel general.

On the other hand, its main direction has been to increase aid to the Colombian military and reduce the strings attached as to how the aid is used. It also has deployed CIA and Pentagon operatives to work with Colombian security-force units that cannot be given a clean bill of health on human-rights abuses. Last year Gen. Charles Wilhelm, head of U.S. Southern Command, told a committee of Congress that criticism of military abuses was ``unfair.''

Now, with the pace being set by Gen. Barry McCaffrey, the administration's top anti-narcotics official, Washington is giving more and more aid to the Colombian military, supposedly for combating the drug menace, but in practice aimed disproportionately at the left-wing guerrillas. After Israel and Egypt, Colombia is the third-largest recipient of U.S. aid.

Washington's sense of frustration is understandable. The left-wing guerrillas have not responded well to the significant steps that Pastrana has taken. But then nobody expected that the betrayals, bad memories and fears of 40 years of war would be set aside by handshakes and face-to-face meetings. But it would be counterproductive for the United States to allow itself to be drawn in.

It would give substance to all the Marxist twaddle of Latin America's left-wing intellectuals and guerrillas about who really pulls the strings. And it would embolden the Colombian army and its paramilitary allies to even-worse excesses.

The path to peace in Colombia lies where it has long been: in honest and humane government within the country and serious moves by the world's largest drug-consuming nation to pull the rug from under the drug barons by amending its outdated and outmoded laws on prohibition.