----------- russia

Russia to Dismantle Nuclear Subs
WORLD In Brief - EUROPE

Compiled from News Services Wednesday, November 10, 1999; Page A34
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-11/10/233l-111099-idx.html

MOSCOW--Russia will dismantle 18 nuclear submarines next year and is working on new technologies to speed up the process, the Interfax news agency reported. Russia must scrap 107 nuclear submarines left over from the Cold War, according to Valeri Lebedev, deputy minister of atomic energy. The United States has pledged millions of dollars to help get rid of the submarines that were built to carry nuclear missiles targeted at the United States....

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Russia Warns U.S. About Missiles

Filed at 11:35 a.m. EST November 10, 1999 Associated Press
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Russia-US-ABM.html

MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that talks on nuclear arms reduction could be scrapped if the United States doesn't uphold the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, according to a news report.

``Russia will be ready for efforts for further reduction of strategic offensive armaments,'' Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin was quoted as saying by the ITAR-Tass news agency. ``This includes cooperation in areas that ABM deals with, but only on condition that the ABM treaty remains in effect and is strictly complied with.''

The United States has been trying to persuade Russia's parliament to ratify the START II nuclear arms reduction treaty and begin negotiating further cuts under a START III proposal. But lawmakers have balked, and with relations tense over ABM, appear no closer to passing the document.

The ABM treaty, signed in 1972, prevents either country from building more than one missile-defense system, on the assumption that fear of mutual destruction would stop either side from launching a nuclear attack.

The United States wants to modify the treaty to allow for a limited missile defense system to protect itself from attacks by rogue states. Russia has opposed changes to the document.

A U.N. General Assembly committee on disarmament recently passed a resolution calling for the observance of the treaty.

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Albright Warns on Missile Defense

By Barry Schweid AP Diplomatic Writer Wednesday, Nov. 10, 1999; 7:45 p.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991110/aponline194510_000.htm

WASHINGTON -- Russian missiles could pierce the limited defense President Clinton may approve next June, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Wednesday.

The system, already being tested, is designed to protect against North Korea and other potential attackers whose arsenals are less potent than Russia's, according to the prepared text of her speech to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations.

"A Russian defense official recently proclaimed that his nation has the ability to overwhelm the missile defense system we are planning," Albright said. "That is true - and part of our point."

"The missile system we are planning is not designed to defend against Russia and could not do so," she said.

Albright urged Russia to approve changes in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which outlaws a national defense against missiles, and said those who would not make changes are dangerous extremists.

"The strategic environment has changed greatly in the 27 years since the ABM treaty was signed," she said.

Albright also labeled as dangerous the view that the treaty should be cast aside. That risks reviving old threats to U.S. security, she said.

Spurgeon Keeny, president of the private Arms Control Association, challenged Albright both for implying Clinton already has reached a decision to go ahead and for calling opponents of changes in the treaty as dangerous extremists.

Her statements "are strongly at odds with the president's statement that his decision will depend on an assessment of flight tests, cost estimates, evaluation of the uncertain threat and progress in achieving arms control objectives," Keeny said.

Besides, Clinton said he would first pursue amending the treaty and this and the other conditions "almost certainly will not be met by June," Keeny said.

The treaty, a landmark in arms control, is based on the theory that a defenseless potential attacker would hold back rather than risk devastating retaliation.

Repeated U.S. attempts to persuade Russia to change the treaty have been rejected.

Last week, a top Pentagon official declared the United States would go ahead with an antimissile defense even if it meant withdrawing from the treaty.

"We will not permit any other country to have a veto on actions that may be needed for the defense of our country," Under Secretary of Defense Walter B. Slocombe said.

Albright did not threaten to scrap the treaty.

But she told critics of an international ban on nuclear weapons tests that the United States would withdraw from that treaty if "new threats" required a resumption of U.S. tests.

The treaty was rejected last month by the Senate.

Albright said the administration was partly to blame because it had not done enough "to lay the groundwork for a successful debate."

She pledged to keep fighting for ratification and announced the administration would appoint a task force to discuss with senators "a variety of possible approaches for bridging differences."

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U.S. Denies Postponed Arms Talks With Russia

Updated 3:49 PM ET November 10, 1999
http://news.excite.com/news/r/991110/15/politics-arms-russia

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States denied on Wednesday reports that it had asked to postpone talks with Russia on two important arms control treaties.

"I think that's an inaccurate report ... My understanding is that we have not walked away from a planned meeting," State Department spokesman James Rubin told his daily briefing.

Another State Department official said that, contrary to Russian reports, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Avdeyev never had firm plans to meet in Moscow on November 16.

Russian news agencies quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ordzhonikidze as saying the November 16 talks were canceled at Washington's request. RIA agency quoted him as saying this did not mean the talks process had broken down.

The talks were due to discuss the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) and START treaties on cutting nuclear arsenals, the agencies said. Russia is strongly opposed to U.S. proposals to amend the 1972 ABM treaty to allow for a U.S. missile defense.

Rubin said: "We are going to continue to discuss the ABM and START issues with Russia. I believe the next formal discussion at the technical level is with Under Secretary (of State John) Holum and his team.

"Deputy Secretary Talbott is available at short notice to meet, when appropriate, with senior officials in Russia."

One U.S. official said the misunderstanding could be linked to the ill health of Talbott's usual Russian counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov. He did not elaborate.

Holum had talks in Moscow on the ABM treaty in late October but made little progress toward persuading the Russians that the treaty amendments proposed by Washington would not damage Russian national interests.

ABM limits defense systems designed to shoot down enemy missiles to one site each for the United States and Russia.

Moscow has one, but neither country has a national missile defense system such as Washington hopes to build.

Itar-Tass quoted Ordzhonikidze as saying: "If the United States leaves the ABM treaty we will not sit around doing nothing and we will be forced to take certain steps in response, including those of a military nature."

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U.S.-Russia: Everybody Talks, But Does Anybody Care to Listen?

Sunday, November 7, 1999 By Michael Nakoryakov
http://www.sltrib.com/1999/nov/11071999/commenta/44837.htm

As it turned out, the recent Oslo summit was not only about President Clinton trying to make sure his presidential record includes something more appealing than impeachment trial -- like a Mideast peace deal, for instance.

There also was an interesting sideshow, starring, in addition to Clinton, the latest Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

That part of the summit was not covered by the news media nearly as well as the Mideast portion, and it's easy to see why. Unlike Clinton's talks with Israel's Ehud Barak and Palestine's Yasser Arafat, with countless photo-ops, back-slapping and semi-sincere pledges of cooperation, the U.S.-Russian meeting was short, businesslike and basically fruitless.

To Clinton's "increased concern in regard to the development of Chechnya situation'' Putin responded with his own "increased concern" -- "in regard to the U.S. plans to modify the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty." Some mandatory niceties were exchanged, to be sure, but that was about it.

It actually smacked of the U.S.-Soviet "dialogues of the deaf" in the past, when State Secretary George Shultz, sitting across the negotiating table from Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, would utter, "Human-rights violations in the Soviet Union.'' Gromyko would immediately shoot back, "Unemployment and racism in the United States."

Then it would go again: "Afghanistan" -- "Vietnam," "Czechoslovakia in 1968" -- "Grenada in 1983," "You spy on us" -- "No, you spy on us" and so on. Everybody talks, nobody listens. Those times, supposedly, are long gone. Or are they?

Grave as the Chechen situation may be, with innocent people being killed by not-so-smart Russian bombs and thousands of refugees running for their lives, Clinton had to agree that there is little he can do.

Chechnya remains an internal Russian problem, even if Moscow deals with it the same ill-considered way NATO dealt with Yugoslavia, complete with the "oops" bombings of apartment buildings and refugee convoys.

Besides, Russia is no Yugoslavia. It has a permanent U.N. Security Council seat -- and its nuclear forces are still there.

But, for that reason precisely, Putin's statement about the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty may deserve a second look.

A lot of people in this country see the 1972 treaty -- which limits the U.S. and the Soviet Union/Russia to one ABM site each and forbids research and development, let alone deployment, of any additional ABM systems -- as a major obstacle that doesn't allow the United States build a shield against a bad guys' missile attack on its territory.

Last year, congressional Rumsfeld Commission that was supposed to assess the ballistic missile threat to the United States, released a report concluding there was a "growing threat,'' and in March of this year the Senate passed Bill S257 -- the National Missile Defense Act of 1999, which encouraged fast deployment of such a system.

In addition, Defense Secretary William Cohen stated to the Congress that the United States should withdraw from the ABM Treaty with Russia if U.S.-proposed changes were not adopted.

Advocates of an anti-missile shield, which included President Reagan with his grandiose 1983 "Star Wars'' idea, prefer to disregard the fact that in today's world anybody who tries to hide behind a hi-tech fence is automatically suspected of plotting a vicious attack against somebody.

That somebody, in turn, will do anything possible to make that "fence" useless, most likely by building more missiles and bigger bombs.

That was the logic behind negotiating the treaty 27 years ago, and, although a lot has changed since then, the basics are still there. So are the problems of creating an efficient anti-missile system covering the entire country. Trouble is, Reagan's "Star Wars,'' precursor to today's programs, was based on space lasers and particle beams, technology still more in place in George Lucas' movies than in reality. And the Army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system that almost wound up dropping its used rocket boosters in Southern Utah canyons a few years ago has a not-so-brilliant one for seven record after four years of testing.

The prospects don't seem too promising: Billions of dollars in taxpayer money are being wasted on complex, unproven, and unprovable national missile defenses. According to Rachel Dubin of Washington-based Center for Defense Information, between the 1994-2005 fiscal years, the program will consume $13.9 billion, including $6.6 billion set aside for deployment.

Meanwhile, the Russians, despite their financial difficulties, are working hard on manufacturing and deployment of their biggest, baddest, most advanced intercontinental missiles called Topol-M. They proudly say no "Star Wars" system is good enough against those babies. They also say there is a direct relation between the American tinkering with the ABM Treaty and speeding-up of the Topols production.

As far as the U.S. position goes, they say, Americans just don't listen. But that is what the Americans say, too -- about Russians.

There must be a workable compromise, though -- has to be, because nobody in the right mind would object to some kind of defense against a rogue nation's missile. Come on now, we may have our disagreements, but haven't we basically been on the same side for almost a decade? Maybe somebody needs to speak up a little -- or get a better interpreter.

Michael Nakoryakov is an editor at the Tribune's World News Desk. Until 1991, he was a journalist in Russia.

----------- Y2K

US, Russia To Eye Y2K Nuke Blunders

By Robert Weller Associated Press Writer Wednesday, Nov. 10, 1999; 4:30 a.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991110/aponline043051_002.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/a/AP-Y2K-Nuclear.html

CHEYENNE MOUNTAIN AIR STATION, Colo. -- Every Christmas Eve, the missile defense wizards stationed here take time for a tongue-in-cheek report on mysterious radar readings at the North Pole.

Things will be much more serious at Cheyenne Mountain this year: In a landmark effort, U.S. and Russian experts will be watching to make sure the Year 2000 bug doesn't trigger nuclear war.

The hunt for inadvertent missile launches will begin with the Kingdom of Tonga once the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1.

"We are partnering with the Russians to make sure nobody makes a mistake," Lt. Col. Gary Warren said Tuesday from deep inside Cheyenne Mountain, the missile defense headquarters for North America.

The U.S. military began preparing for the effects of Y2K more than four years ago. With its economy in turmoil, Russia is believed to be considerably behind in its efforts.

In February, the Clinton administration proposed setting up the joint Y2K center. Russian officers have already visited the site, and 18 will return - all expenses paid by the U.S. military - on Dec. 23.

They will work out of a nondescript structure, Building 1840, near the U.S. Space Command Center at Peterson Air Force Base.

The space command, Space Warfare Center, North American Air Defense Command (NORAD) are all in Colorado Springs, sprawled across the prairie at the foot of Pikes Peak some 65 miles south of Denver.

It is NORAD that tracks the missiles. The 4.5-acre granite bunker is buried 1,700 feet beneath Cheyenne Mountain. The base, which opened in 1966, features 2.8 miles of tunnels, 3-foot-thick blast doors and buildings atop mammoth metal coils that serve as shock absorbers.

On Tuesday, Russian journalists were allowed into Cheyenne Mountain for the first time. The Russian officers, however, will not be permitted inside the command center, which was carved out of 700,000 tons of granite.

"There is that residual distrust," said Lt. Col. Greg Boyette, who took part in the negotiations and visited Russia several times. "I'm an old Strategic Air Command guy. We've been doing this (fighting each other) for 40 years, and we didn't ask them to give away the farm, either."

No U.S. soldiers will be stationed in Russia.

However, the two nations will share basic data about any launches or material falling from space. The information will include where missiles or other objects are coming from, where they are headed and what type of object is involved.

While Boyette said he expects most nations to avoid any missile launches during the holiday period, the most-discussed scenario is a computer error that creates the impression of a false missile threat.

Brig. Gen. Robert Latiff, Cheyenne Mountain's commander, said his teams also are aware of the possibility that an attacker might use any confusion created by Y2K glitches to launch an attack.

Still, on New Year's Eve, Cheyenne Mountain will have only a few more than normal staff on hand. Senior officers will be present, so there would be no need to track them down in case of a problem.

"If there was an accidental missile launch you can bet the two presidents would be on the hotline," Boyette said.

The Russian teams, usually three officers and a translator, will have a direct line to Moscow from the Y2K center at Peterson. At least one member of their U.S. counterparts will be fluent in Russian.

Maj. Dan Mullen, who is in charge of managing Y2K problems for Cheyenne Mountain, assured journalists that a scenario similar to "WarGames" - the 1983 movie in which a teen hacks into a military computer - could not set off a war.

"Computers do not make the decisions around here. People do," he said. "We plan to be bored on New Year's Eve. We've counted every sesame seed on every bun."

NORAD to search the skies on Jan. 1 for errant missiles
Associated Press November 10, 1999
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/1,1249,125015473,00.html?

Y2K nuke plans finalized
11/10/99- Updated 05:32 PM ET
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ctg642.htm

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White House says Y2K won't cause nuclear bombs to explode

1.37 a.m. ET (647 GMT) November 10, 1999 By Ted Bridis, Associated Press
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/1110/n_ap_1110_21.sml

WASHINGTON (AP) - In its final report on the nation's Y2K-related repairs, the White House is reassuring Americans the lights won't go out, telephones will ring and nuclear bombs won't accidentally detonate because of computer failures.

But with just over 50 days remaining, the government's top experts also cautioned that local government, schools, hospitals and small businesses continue to lag on repairs, with the worst among them adopting a "wait and see'' stance toward expected failures.

The report, being released today, broke little new ground. It noted that the best-prepared sectors continue to be the federal government, power and water utilities, airlines and rail companies and telephone services. It predicted a "high degree of confidence'' in those areas.

The new study also debunked worries about a misfired nuclear missile.

"Y2K problems will not cause nuclear weapons to launch themselves,'' the White House promised. "Nuclear weapons launch requires human intervention.''

But there are problems. The President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion cited surveys showing more than one-fourth of small businesses don't plan to do anything to get ready for the New Year's rollover.

Only half of America's 911 call centers confirmed last month they were ready, and more than one-third of the country's elementary and secondary schools told the Education Department they aren't yet prepared.

John Koskinen, the president's top Y2K adviser, previously warned that 911 computer failures probably wouldn't prevent police or fire departments from taking calls. But it could force employees to use manual dispatch systems, meaning it will take longer for rescue workers to respond.

"It is clear that a significant amount of work remains for all centers to be ready,'' the study said.

It also warned that failures in schools could affect heating, lighting, fire alarms, elevators, student records and teacher payroll.

The council said some health-care providers and medical organizations "exhibit troubling levels of readiness,'' which could cause headaches with billing systems and patient records.

Experts recommend that, while national failures aren't expected, Americans should assess the risk for any local problems and take precautions - such as buying drinking water if the community treatment plant can't guarantee it will be ready.

But experts have repeatedly warned against stockpiling supplies, saying a run on food, gasoline, prescriptions and even cash might cause more problems than the threat of Y2K failures.

The latest report chided organizations "that are not paying appropriate attention to the problem or are adopting a 'wait-and-see' strategy, opting to make repairs after non-compliant systems break down.''

The council also criticized organizations with late deadlines for repairs for failing to develop contingency plans.

The study said computer failures overseas remain possible. The largest U.S. trading partners, Canada and Mexico, will be ready, and so will most developed countries with which the United States conducts the bulk of its trade, the report said.

Four of the five countries the U.S. most relies upon for oil imports, for example, predicted no problems with their drilling, refining and delivery systems. Those were Venezuela, Mexico, Canada and Saudi Arabia. Less information was available for Nigeria.

"The greatest risk for significant Y2K-related failures continues to be in developing nations and countries that got a late start on the problem and already have fragile infrastructure systems,'' the report said. It cited Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia as "more likely to experience significant failures.''

The so-called Y2K problem exists because many older computers and software programs recognize only the last two digits of the year and could mistakenly interpret "00'' as 1900.

--

Is America safe from Y2K nuclear attack?
White House says Y2K won't cause nukes to explode
Associated Press / Deseret News, November 10, 1999
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/1,1249,125015472,00.html?

----------- international

Ex-premier warns of threat of mass destruction weapons

1.24 p.m. ET (1834 GMT) November 10, 1999 By Barry Schweid, Associated Press
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/national/1110/d_ap_1110_105.sml

WASHINGTON (AP) - An ex-prime minister of Kazakstan said Wednesday the former Soviet republic is capable of starting production of chemical, biological and chemical weapons within 12 months if it receives Western financial assistance.

Akezhan Kazhegeldin, prime minister from 1994-97 and now leader of the Republican People's Party, also accused President Nursultan Nazarbayev's government of taking steps to censor Internet communications.

Banned from running for president last January and from a seat in the parliament last month, Kazhegeldin was here to see members of Congress and State Department officials.

At a news conference, he said Western intervention to protect ethnic Albanians in Kosovo from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic set a new standard for battling human rights abuses.

The West must be more insistent that the way former Soviet republics deal with their own people is not a private matter, he said.

"We must remember that Milosevic is not the only bad guy,'' he said, speaking in Russian.

A day after ceremonies in Germany marked the 10th anniversary of the Berlin Wall's destruction, Kazhegeldin said the leaders of former Soviet republics in Asia were building a wall to hide their human rights abuses from the rest of the world.

"The leaders of these new countries all have the same mentality,'' he said. "They all try to use the West and to deceive it. They believe human rights is a private affair.''

Last week, he said, the Kazakstan government began electronic censorship "and is violating the most basic norms of democracy.''

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union kept nuclear missiles in Kazakstan and conducted many tests there.

The arsenals was abandoned after the Soviet breakup, but Kazhegeldin said that today, "Kazakstan is capable of producing nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in 12 months' time. The technology is there. The resources are there.''

Kazakstan retains the ingredients for nuclear weapons and "there is no guarantee the materials will not be sold,'' he said.

The United States provides Kazakstan with $75 million a year in foreign aid, and the former Soviet republic is in line to receive $400 million in credits from the International Monetary Fund.

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Swiss Cabinet Cancels Bunker Meet

The Associated Press Wednesday, Nov. 10, 1999; 9:51 a.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991110/aponline095126_000.htm

BERN, Switzerland -- With the rest of Europe focused on the 10th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and end of the Cold War, the Swiss government has been quietly preparing itself against attack.

The Cabinet intended to inaugurate its newly built bunker deep in the central Swiss Alps by holding its weekly meeting there Wednesday, but scrapped the plans at the last minute after newspapers found out.

Government spokesman Hansruedi Moser said ministers feared a media blitz that would have been incompatible with the bunker's status as a "classified facility" and switched the meeting back to the capital, Bern.

The $150 million facility is meant to shelter the seven-member Cabinet in the event of chemical or nuclear warfare. Authorities approved its construction in 1991 - two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall - and have since faced constant accusations of wasting taxpayers' money.

Fortresses, bunkers and underground supply depots are common in Switzerland's mountains. The Swiss say the vast Alpine defense network played a vital role in deterring an attack from neighboring Germany in World War II. Critics say the willingness of neutral Switzerland to supply and bankroll the Nazis was more important.

The new government bunker is near the Alpine resort of Kandersteg, 40 miles south of Bern. The cabinet had planned to travel there by bus, the newspaper Tages-Anzeiger reported.

"While the government was planning its trip to the bunker, the rest of Europe was not thinking of concrete but the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War," the newspaper commented.

"Government Party for the 10th anniversary of the Fall of the Wall," read a cartoon in the newspaper showing a gaily decorated bunker festooned with the Swiss flag. "Here you can dance the night away. It won't wake the neighbors."

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Pakistani diplomat warns Clinton against boycott

By Ben Barber THE WASHINGTON TIMES
http://www.washtimes.com/news/news2.html

An envoy of Pakistan's new military leader yesterday warned that President Clinton will fuel anti-Americanism and harm India-Pakistan peace moves if he visits India early next year but boycotts Pakistan.

Sahabzada Yaqub Khan, a former foreign minister appointed to defend Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf's October coup, said he delivered the message to senior U.S. officials including Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright.

"If the [Clinton] visit went one way only, there could be strong feelings of hurt in Pakistan, and certain anti-U.S. elements would make much of it," Mr. Yaqub told editors and reporters of The Washington Times.

"The Indians would crow, and that would inflame feelings in Pakistan and heighten tensions" between the two nuclear-armed South Asian nations, said the veteran diplomat.

Mr. Clinton is expected to visit South Asia early next year, where he will stop in India and possibly Bangladesh. State Department officials have said that a visit to Pakistan would be all but impossible because of Gen. Musharraf's October coup that ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and suspended parliament. Mr. Yaqub said that in meetings with senior American officials in recent days he has been told that a visit to Pakistan remains impossible unless the general can demonstrate some moves toward restoring democracy.

Gen. Musharraf said in Turkey on Monday that he would not give out any timetable for a restoration of democracy as demanded by the United States and the Commonwealth, which is composed of former British colonies.

The Commonwealth suspended Pakistan's membership after the coup.

"What the Western world may be looking for is the label of democracy," Gen. Musharraf told a news conference.

"Inshallah [with God's permission], I will put this label of democracy some time in the near future. I have set certain objectives to be achieved. . . . These essential objectives cannot be translated into a time frame," the general said.

India yesterday called for Pakistan's suspension from the 54-member Commonwealth to become permanent. New Delhi has already scuttled a meeting of the six-nation South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) scheduled for Katmandu later this month, citing a refusal to sit down with the Pakistani military government.

India is still furious over the loss last summer of several hundred of its soldiers in the worst outbreak of fighting with Pakistan since 1972 -- barely one year after the two set off their first nuclear weapons tests in May, 1998.

Indian officials are particularly incensed that Gen. Musharraf, now a virtual dictator in Pakistan, was in command of the army last spring and summer when Muslim guerrillas from Pakistan, aided by Pakistani troops, seized the mountains in Indian-held Kashmir overlooking the town of Kargil.

Gen. Musharraf, whose brother lives in Chicago and whose parents are naturalized American citizens, sent Mr. Yaqub to Europe and Washington to defend his ouster of Mr. Sharif and try to soften economic and political sanctions imposed due to the coup.

Mr. Yaqub, who met with Mrs. Albright and National Security Adviser Samuel R. Berger as well as senior State Department officials Thomas Pickering, Strobe Talbott and Karl Inderfurth, said Mr. Sharif had concentrated power, attacked the press and allowed corruption.

For the first time, the Pakistani envoy said that U.S. officials had discussed some form of "phase-by-phase" introduction of reforms which might be cited by the Clinton administration as progress toward democracy.

The administration has let it be known it understands that Pakistani popular sentiment supported the coup and it would like to find a way to ease sanctions so that the nearly bankrupt and ethnically volatile Islamic country of 140 million could regain some stability.

Pakistan has large and militant fundamentalist Islamic groups, some of which train terrorists in neighboring Taleban-ruled Afghanistan, where accused terrorist Osama bin Laden is sheltered.

The "phase-by-phase" reforms Mr. Yaqub listed include fixing the economy, reforming the electoral system and political reform.

A State Department official said the United States preferred to use the term "milestones" to describe the steps of democratic reform instead of "phases."

The official, who asked not to be named, said the door remains open to a visit by Mr. Clinton. "They're talking about a presidential visit in the first quarter of the year -- we'll have to see if the milestones could be achieved by then."

On July 4, when Mr. Clinton met with Mr. Sharif in Washington and persuaded him to withdraw the guerrillas and any Pakistani troops from the Indian side of the Line of Control dividing Kashmir, the president offered to help bring peace to South Asia.

Mr. Yaqub said that Mr. Clinton wants to make a peace accord between India and Pakistan a crowning achievement of his two terms in office. The two countries have fought three wars since independence from Britain and partition in 1947.

Former Clinton adviser Stephen Cohen said "any [Clinton] decision on whether to go to Pakistan should be based in part on Pakistan's actions, one of which should be continued rapprochement with India."

Mr. Cohen, currently a scholar with the Brookings Institution, said the military government installed by Gen. Musharraf "has done pretty well so far" in moving toward economic reform, cleaning out corruption and preserving civil liberties.

"A presidential stopover or visit should be able to acknowledge these accomplishments, if they hold up," he said.

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Turin, Italy, on anniversary of fall of Berlin Wall:
Editorial Roundup

La Stampa, The Associated Press Wednesday, Nov. 10, 1999; 1:16 p.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991110/aponline131614_000.htm

Seldom has the move from one historical phase to another been represented in such a grand and spectacular manner as the fall of the Berlin Wall. It is if a 150 kilometer-long curtain was physically opened to make room for an entirely new scene. As always, as time goes by, the initial enthusiasm wanes. Wars have not disappeared. The evil empire is no more, but evil still remains everywhere.

The new century therefore risks resembling the old. The U.S. has rekindled the idea of the Reagan era's Strategic Defense Initiative for the interception of ballistic missiles. Russia has said that if the SDI is implemented, then the disarmament accords of the 1980s risk falling. The American Senate meanwhile, has rejected the treaty banning nuclear experiments, thereby condoning the ones conducted by India and Pakistan.

So therefore, one could ask, what is there to celebrate? Maybe an answer will come from Europe. Because the goals it has achieved in these ten years are no mean feat. But mostly for those small walls that are being broken down daily within Europe itself.

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S.Korean Arms Deal Proposed

The Associated Press Tuesday, Nov. 9, 1999; 5:51 p.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991109/aponline175128_000.htm

WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon said Tuesday it has agreed to sell 14 of the latest Patriot air defense systems to South Korea for $4.2 billion.

The Patriot is produced by Raytheon Corp. of Andover, Mass.

The deal, which is subject to review by Congress, includes a full package of air-defense missiles, radars, fire control stations, electrical generators, trucks, trailers, maintenance equipment and other supplies.

The latest version of the Patriot air defense missile, called PAC-3, is capable of defending ports and bases against not only aircraft but also shorter-range ballistic missiles. It is an improved version of the Patriot used against Iraqi Scud missile attacks in the 1991 Gulf War.

"This proposed sale will enhance their defensive capability against hostile neighbors, lessening the burden on the United States," the Pentagon said in a statement. The United States has about 37,000 troops permanently stationed in South Korea out of concern for a possible attack by North Korea.

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Israel Working With Chinese Jets

By Jack Katzenell Associated Press Writer Tuesday, Nov. 9, 1999; 4:58 p.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991109/aponline165809_000.htm

JERUSALEM -- Israel is outfitting a Chinese air force plane with an advanced airborne early warning system that will allow the aircraft to conduct long-range radar surveillance and coordinate forces during battle, an Israeli official said Tuesday.

The Soviet manufactured Ilyushin-50 aircraft has been in Israel for more than two weeks, being mounted with the PHALCON radar system, said the Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

PHALCON, which stands for Phased-Array L-Band Conformal radar, is manufactured by Elta, a subsidiary of Israel Aircraft Industries. Elta designed the system for the Israel air force using an American- manufactured Boeing 707 airliner as a platform.

Reports that Israel is selling the system to China have been circulating for two years.

It has also been reported that Israel has sold the PHALCON to South Africa and converted two South African air force Boeings for the system.

According to foreign reports, Israel already has extensive military cooperation with China. Jane's Defense Weekly has reported that a fighter plane now being developed by China bears a striking resemblance to the Lavi, an Israeli aircraft developed in the 1980s but scrapped before it entered production.

Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian, who visited Israel last month, discussed the possibility that Israel Aircraft Industries might upgrade China's Mig-21 fighters, which form the backbone of the Chinese air force but are antiquated, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said. The Soviet-built Mig-21 dates back to the 1960s.

Chi toured the aircraft manufacturer, viewing pilotless planes, sea-to-sea missiles, radar and other systems.

-----------

Colombia Seeks U.S. Military Helicopters

Filed at 6:14 p.m. EDT November 10, 1999 By Reuters
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-arms-co.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Colombia says it wants to buy 14 ''Blackhawk'' military helicopters from the United States for $221 million to beef up its forces in the war against Marxist guerrillas and drug cartels, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

The Defense Department said the deal was not final, but that the UH-60L helicopters, some armed with machine guns and rockets, would ``improve the security of a friendly country which has been and continues to be an important force in the war on drugs.''

Such a sale would be part of a renewed U.S. effort to help the South American country improve its military capability in the long war against drug cartels and the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The Defense Department said the helicopters, made by United Technologies Corp., would help Colombian forces upgrade both day and night mission capability for the defense of government installations and provide close air support for ground forces.

The FARC is involved in protecting the production and shipment of drugs to help finance their long-running war to topple the state. It is also reported to have stepped up kidnappings and extortion rackets in Bogota over the last year in an effort to raise fresh finances.

At least 35,000 people have died in the last 10 years of fighting and FARC commanders pledged recently to target major urban centers in a bid to bring their three-decade-old uprising in from remote rural regions to Colombia's towns and cities.

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Turkey, Israel, U.S. Plan Maneuvers

Filed at 9:20 a.m. EST November 10, 1999 By The Associated Press
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/i/AP-Turkey-Israel-Military-Exercises.html

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkey, Israel and the United States will hold a second round of joint naval maneuvers off the Turkish Mediterranean coast later this year, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.

Spokesman Sermet Atacanli gave no date, but said the exercises would take place ``toward the end of the year.'' The Anatolia news agency said the maneuvers, named ``Reliant Mermaid-2'' would be Dec. 14-17.

The first joint maneuvers were in January 1998 and they drew angry protests from Iran and many Arab states, who saw the growing Turkish-Israeli military relationship as a threat.

Israel and NATO-member Turkey also have defense production accords and Turkey lets Israeli jets train in its air space.

Jordan, an observer to the first exercises, will stay away this time to avoid damaging relations with Syria, Anatolia said.

----------- U.S.

Yucca Mountain study finds water in rock

By Mary Manning manning@lasvegassun.com LAS VEGAS SUN November 10, 1999 at 11:34:38 PST
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/lv-other/1999/nov/10/509529288.html

A UNLV-led research team has confirmed through crystals that water once flowed through the volcanic rock at Yucca Mountain, and the scientists now are turning their attention to finding out how long ago the water created the crystals, how hot the water probably was and where it came from.

Those answers will take at least until spring 2001 to find and could help determine whether the only site being studied as a dump for the nation's 77,000 tons of highly radioactive waste would be scientifically suitable, UNLV geologist Jean Cline said Tuesday.

If the water invaded Yucca Mountain within the past 2 million years, there could be problems with burying radioactive waste there, she said. Evidence of water that recently would mean that water could flow through the mountain again and corrode canisters holding the toxic waste, allowing radioactivity to escape in dangerous amounts.

The scientists don't expect to have definitive answers when they're done, but their results could raise a red flag on the safety of the project.

"I don't think we're going to find out that golden nugget that will tell us if Yucca Mountain will be safe to store nuclear waste," consultant Robert Bodnar, a water expert from Virginia Technical Institute, said. "We will have a better understanding, but we won't know everything."

The search for answers on whether the repository is scientifically feasible and safe has become a mini-industry.

In the Department of Energy's original plan, a high-level nuclear waste repository was supposed to be open at the site 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas by now at a cost of roughly $18 million. At this point it will be at least another decade before the first truckload rolls in -- if at all.

What DOE has put into the mountain is $13 billion worth of research -- almost equal to the annual gross domestic product of Cuba. The study by Cline and her colleagues is costing another $1.4 million, and several other studies are continuing on other factors that could affect the repository.

The scientific study is able to attract the DOE's money and buy the time, because if the United States builds a repository for highly radioactive waste, it would be the first nation in the world to do so. There are no others to learn from earlier mistakes.

With hundreds of studies it has commissioned, the DOE is trying to determine what would happen when Yucca Mountain's volcanic tuff is heated with buried casks filled with radioactive wastes, how fractures in the mountain would react to heat and water and how water flows through fractures in the tuff, among other things.

All of these results will become part of a computer simulation program to see how the mountain might react if highly radioactive material is buried deep within.

"I would not want to make that call," Cline said, adding that the study will give regulators and scientists more information to determine if Yucca Mountain is a safe place to bury the wastes or not.

"The concept is that if the mountain isn't the right place, we'll walk away from it, that's true," senior DOE technical adviser William Boyle said.

However, no single test result will stop the project, Boyle said. "I don't know of any single test that has a pass-fail grade." The key is what the cumulative test results tell investigators.

Probably the most critical questions for Yucca Mountain revolve around ground water below the desert floor, both DOE and state officials charged with oversight of the many studies agree.

DOE's Yucca Mountain Project Manager Russell Dyer said that answering the question of how fast water moves through the mountain is crucial to a repository's future.

"I think if there is evidence of ground water there within thousands of years, then Yucca Mountain will be dead," physicist Arjun Makhijani, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research in Takoma, Md., said. He has independently reviewed DOE's studies. "If it's millions of years, then there will be no debate and a repository will go forward. If the number falls in between, then there will be a fight."

The temperature of the water is also important, because if it appears to have been hot, it would be evidence that geothermal water has risen from deep within the Earth up to the repository site. Similar events in the future could corrode waste canisters.

Rainwater seeping from the ground down into the repository poses a similar concern.

In addition, DOE and state officials want to know how fast ground water moves from one point to another, so they can try to predict whether radiation might escape the repository site through the water. Some evidence suggests that radioactivity from nuclear testing at the Nevada Test Site has traveled in water up to a mile from its original site.

The nearest farm is in Amargosa Valley 12 miles south of Yucca Mountain.

Several agencies with oversight on whether Yucca Mountain becomes a repository are keeping a close eye on the studies.

Robert Loux, executive director of the Nevada Agency for Nuclear Projects, believes Cline's study conclusions could halt the repository project if they substantiate geothermal water is rising in the mountain, which he believes it will.

"I think it's an important study," Loux said. "I think it means a great deal of trouble for the repository if the dates of those deposits are younger than 1 million years. I certainly think it could break the repository."

William Reamer, chief of the high-level nuclear waste branch for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, would not speculate on what Cline's study or any other particular study means to Yucca Mountain.

"It is premature for the NRC to speculate if it would be a show-stopper," Reamer said. He notes that the theory of geothermal water periodically rising inside Yucca Mountain and invading the repository site has been studied and is not generally accepted.

The DOE is not expected to submit a license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission until at least 2001, at which time those questions would have to be answered, Reamer said.

-----

Missile crisis water in from the cold in Florida

Updated 8:26 PM ET November 10, 1999
http://news.excite.com/news/r/991110/20/fl-cuba-usa-water

LAKE WALES, Fla. (Reuters) -A Florida food company is offering customers a drink from the darkest days of the Cold War -- water canned for nuclear survival kits during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

Vita Hinshaw, owner of Chalet Suzanne Food Inc., said Wednesday her company is selling some 3,600 leftover cans of water from the nuclear attack survival kits for $15 apiece to raise money for the Cold War Museum in Fairfax, Virginia.

"During the Cold War, when the Cuban missile crisis was on, we had a call from a company in Tampa that was making these nuclear attack survival kits. ... They needed a canned water to put in the kits," Hinshaw said.

"So we took on the challenge and did about 4,000 cases," she said.

The 77-year-old Hinshaw recalled the missile crisis as "a very tense time," when nuclear war was an imminent threat as the United States and Russia squared off over atomic weapons based in Cuba. The company took the water from a well at its Chalet Suzanne Restaurant and Country Inn, about 60 miles east of Tampa, and packaged it according to U.S. military specifications.

The red, white and gold cans are lithographed because paper labels were forbidden.

Three hundred cases of the water, or 3,600 cans, were left when the missile crisis ended, she said. They are being sold at her soup company and restaurant and inn.

The cans were set aside from the end of the missile crisis until earlier this year, but Hinshaw said the water is still good. She knows because she opened a can and drank it about two months ago. "It was just perfect," she said.

------

Army Says Strained Resources Leave Troops Unprepared for War

By DAVID STOUT November 10, 1999
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/national/army-resources.html

WASHINGTON -- The Army has described two of its 10 divisions as ill prepared for war because of shortages of troops, equipment or training in a report that may set the stage for a political battle over whether the service should get more money.

Because of the strains caused by sending peacekeeping troops to Bosnia and Kosovo, the 10th Mountain Division, based at Fort Drum, N.Y., and the First Infantry Division in Germany were recently given ratings of C-4, the lowest of four possible readiness grades.

Senator James M. Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who heads the Readiness Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, expressed alarm over the situation in a statement issued on Friday.

Accusing the Clinton Administration of allowing military readiness to deteriorate, Inhofe said, "Unfortunately, today we have a 10-division Army performing the workload of 14 divisions."

The senator expressed dismay that no Army division was rated C-1, the most combat-ready designation.

"The last time the Army was facing a readiness crisis of this magnitude was in the late 1970's, when the defense budget was drastically slashed without any consideration of the impact that this would have on our armed forces," Inhofe said.

The C-4 grading of two divisions marks the first time in at least seven years that any of the Army's divisions has received the lowest grade, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday. The grade means the two divisions are not considered ready for a major regional war until their deficiencies are corrected.

Tuesday night, a Congressional staff aide familiar with the report noted that the readiness ratings might have been affected by Congressional directives to place greater stress on the ability of the military to wage two major wars at the same time.

The Post reported that some Pentagon officials viewed the Army's low self-grading as a way of lobbying for more money. Another factor that must be considered in any attempt to assess the military's readiness for battle objectively is the fact that the military has shrunk by more than a third since the end of the cold war and has been forced to rethink what wars it may have to fight, and how.

---

Army: 2 Divisions Not Ready for War

Filed at 4:14 p.m. EST November 10, 1999 By The Associated Press
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/w/AP-Army-Readiness.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Army's top soldier on Wednesday expressed mild concern that the war readiness of two combat divisions has been downgraded. But he denied it meant the Army was falling short of the standard of being capable of fighting two major wars at nearly the same time.

``There is a personnel shortfall that we've been wrestling with,'' Gen. Eric Shinseki, the Army chief of staff, told reporters. He said he may have to ask Congress to authorize more troops. But first, he wants to fill holes in the 10 active-duty combat divisions and get Army recruiting back on track.

Shinseki confirmed that the commanders of two divisions -- the 10th Mountain Division, based at Fort Drum, N.Y., and the 1st Infantry Division, based in Germany -- rated their units ``C-4,'' the lowest of four grades of readiness in October.

The rating means that in a worst-case scenario of one major war breaking out almost immediately after another in separate parts of the world, these divisions could not get their troops to the fight in the time prescribed by the Defense Department's war plan.

Shinseki said the problem lies not with the quality or amount of equipment in these divisions or troop training. Rather, it is the unusual makeup of these two divisions, each of which has about half its troops on peacekeeping duty in the Balkans -- the 10th Mountain in Bosnia and the 1st Infantry in Kosovo. The peacekeepers are not counted as war-ready while they are in the Balkans.

In a two-war scenario, the peacekeeping troops in Kosovo and Bosnia could not quickly extract themselves and their equipment, return to their home bases, retrain and then ship off to a major war in the allotted time, Shinseki said.

Asked if this bothered him, he said, ``Sure, anytime a division commander reports C-4 we are concerned.'' He added, ``We'll see what corrections need to happen.'' One change already under way, Shinseki said, is a greater reliance on National Guard and Army Reserve troops in Bosnia and Kosovo.

The Washington Post first disclosed the classified assessment of the two divisions' readiness ratings. The newspaper reported Wednesday that the lowering of the ratings stunned senior Pentagon civilians and members of Congress, who were informed of the monthly ratings within the past week.

Some Pentagon officials reportedly portrayed the evaluation as an effort by the Army to lobby for more money.

The poor ratings reinforce the arguments of congressional Republicans who contend the Clinton administration is spending too little on the military and committing U.S. forces to too many missions.

The Army and other branches of the military long have acknowledged that peacekeeping duties dull troops' war-fighting edge and strain preparations for war missions. But they have adjusted by regularly rotating troops out of peacekeeping duty.

-----------

Baldwin Speaks for Nonprofit Group

The Associated Press Wednesday, Nov. 10, 1999; 1:24 a.m. EST
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/19991110/aponline012416_000.htm

POMONA, N.J. -- Alec Baldwin doesn't mind using his star power for a cause.

Baldwin, 41, the star of films including "The Hunt for Red October" and "Ghosts of Mississippi," is the celebrity spokesman for the Tooth Fairy Project, an effort by the nonprofit Radiation and Public Health Project to collect and analyze baby teeth in hopes of measuring exposure to radiation and nuclear contamination.

"If putting my name out there will attract more people to come see the presentation, then so be it," he said Tuesday. "I'm happy to be the chum in the water."

Baldwin moderated a panel discussion about the effects of low-level radiation on people. The Tuesday event at the Richard Stockton College of New Jersey drew about 400 people - many of them college students eager to get a glimpse of the movie star.

Baldwin encouraged people to spread the word about the Tooth Fairy Project.

"The reason I'm here is that we have a burgeoning movement," he said. "We want to get answers about low-level radiation and exposure to it."

---------- US politics

Albright slams GOP on weapons, UN dues

By MIKE SAELENS UPI November 9, 1999
http://news.excite.com/news/u/991109/23/other-albright

CHICAGO, Nov. 10 (UPI) Saying the U.S. Senate's reluctance to pass a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty and to pay long overdue fees to the United Nations is harmful to U.S. interests, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Wednesday called on Republican leaders to set aside their differences with President Clinton and pass both measures.

Speaking before the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, Albright criticized the GOP leadership for "abandoning efforts at nuclear non- proliferation."

Albright called last month's Senate vote rejecting the test ban treaty "a highly sobering experience," adding, "Never before have the clearly expressed views of our closest allies been so lightly dismissed. "

Evoking the names of past Republican luminaries like former Illinois Sen. Everett Dirksen and President Dwight Eisenhower, Albright said that while it is fair to blame both the GOP and Democratic leadership, the focus should now shift to the future.

She said failure to pass a comprehensive treaty will lead to "a steady weakening of nuclear controls," with a dozen more nations from the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula gaining nuclear weapons capability in the next 20 years.

"One can imagine then a world imperiled by bitter regional rivalries in which governments are able to threaten and destroy each other without having to mass troops at a border, send an aircraft aloft or launch a ship of war," she said.

Albright said the Clinton administration would launch a high-level task force to work closely with senators to address issues raised during the test ban debate.

Albright also said changes are needed to the 27-year-old Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to deploy a limited National Missile Defense System currently being tested. She said a decision on the system could come as early as next summer.

On the issue of UN dues, Albright received loud applause when she called for payment of the overdue fees in the face of threats of the loss of the U.S. seat on the Security Council.

"The UN serves important American interests," she said. "These include peacekeeping, safeguarding nuclear materials, prosecuting war criminals, enforcing sanctions against rogue states, protecting intellectual property rights, fighting disease and saving children's lives."

Albright's remarks were interrupted several times by at least a dozen people protesting U.S. policy regarding Iraq. The protesters were ejected but no arrests were reported.

--------

Bradley played dove to Gore's hawk

Updated 4:08 PM ET November 8, 1999
http://news.excite.com/news/u/991108/16/politics-defense-candidates

WASHINGTON, Nov. 8 (UPI) Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Bradley was twice as likely to vote to cut defense spending or terminate controversial defense programs during his senate tenure than Vice President Al Gore, according to a new analysis released by a left- leaning political organization Americans for Democratic Action.

The organization compares the records of Gore and Bradley in the Senate and House of Representatives since 1977 Gore's first year in the House and gives Bradley a rating of 87 percent in his support of liberal defense stances, versus Gore's 46 percent overall.

It is only from 1985 to 1992 that the two candidates records can be compared side by side, as they both then served in the Senate. Of the 37 votes dealing with defense issues taken in that period ranging from funding for the "Star Wars" program and the B-2 stealth bomber to support for the multi-warhead MX nuclear missile Bradley "outscores" Gore by a margin of almost two-to-one, according to ADA.

In 1989, for instance, Gore voted against taking $3 billion from the defense budget and putting it into education programs instead, a measure Bradley supported. The proposal failed. In 1991, Bradley voted in favor of limiting the production of B-2 bombers to 15; Gore was opposed. That measure also failed. In 1992, Gore abstained from voting on a nine-month moratorium on nuclear testing. Bradley supported it, and it was accepted.

During the 1985-1992 period, Gore abstained from voting on four defense-related issues twice on limiting nuclear testing; once on cutting $1 billion from the Strategic Defense Initiative, a space-based missile defense system; and once on a measure that would have banned the assembly of a certain kind of chemical weapon. In all cases, Bradley voted the liberal line.

Bradley abstained on one vote during that period, which was cutting all funds for the B-2 bomber. Gore voted to maintain the controversial and expensive bomber's funding.

"This surprised me. I expected the two candidates to be closer in their records," said John Isaacs, director of Council for a Liveable World, an equally liberal think tank in Washington.

The survey of voting records spans Gore's House career from 1977 to 1984, Bradley's Senate career from 1979 to 1996, and Gore's Senate tenure from 1985 to 1992.